Waalwijk 2-2 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Utrecht in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 6 August 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Waalwijk have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Waalwijk haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Utrecht (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Utrecht haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Utrecht have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Waalwijk's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Utrecht's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Utrecht in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Waalwijk, 0 for Utrecht and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Utrecht — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 65% and Utrecht 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 50% | Utrecht 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.43 xG and Utrecht 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.940 / defence 0.999 | Utrecht attack 0.941 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.297. Data: 34 Waalwijk games / 34 Utrecht games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 42% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 32%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Utrecht 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 60% | Utrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 42% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Waalwijk 1.43 / Utrecht 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.940 / def 0.999 | Utrecht attack 0.941 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Utrecht xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Utrecht kick off?
Waalwijk vs Utrecht kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Waalwijk 2 - 2 Utrecht.
Where is Waalwijk vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Utrecht part of?
Waalwijk vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 42% chance of winning, Utrecht a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Waalwijk and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Utrecht?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 2 | Utrecht 0W.
What form are Waalwijk and Utrecht in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.94x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.94x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
42%
2.38
26%
3.86
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.65
1.22
Utrecht xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.22 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 9W 11D 14L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. Waalwijk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Utrecht's form line: 12W 10D 12L from 34 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. Utrecht haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.35 for Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 4W 4D 9L from 17 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Utrecht's season.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Utrecht in 65%.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Pre-Season
Utrecht
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 9W 11D 14L in their last 34 games (1.12 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 12W 10D 12L in their last 34 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Utrecht away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.24 PPG; Utrecht away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Utrecht go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 0-4 on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
5
Draws
3
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Utrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, Utrecht have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Waalwijk 0-4 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 53%, Utrecht 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Waalwijk) and 65% (Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Waalwijk's games and 59% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Waalwijk's matches and 65% of Utrecht's.
Do Waalwijk and Utrecht tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and Utrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 1, as Waalwijk and Utrecht drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.43 xG and Utrecht 1.22 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Utrecht attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 42% | Draw 26% | Utrecht 32%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 50%, Utrecht 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.12 PPG, Utrecht 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.