Waalwijk 1-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to Mandemakers Stadion to face Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 May 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Waalwijk have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 2W 5D 3L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Waalwijk against 0.80 for PEC Zwolle. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, PEC Zwolle in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Waalwijk, 1 for PEC Zwolle and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Waalwijk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 56% versus PEC Zwolle 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 61% | PEC Zwolle 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.89 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.820 / defence 0.952 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.885 / defence 1.358. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.458. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.358 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Waalwijk games / 32 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 51% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 23%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | PEC Zwolle 4.35. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waalwijk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 70% | PEC Zwolle 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 51% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Waalwijk 1.89 / PEC Zwolle 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.820 / def 0.952 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.885 / def 1.358 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.23
PEC Zwolle xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Waalwijk 1 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 51% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle?
Record (3 meetings): Waalwijk 1W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.82) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.89x) against Waalwijk's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 66/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.90
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.12
1.23
PEC Zwolle xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
4%
28.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.23 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 18W 15D 33L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 32W 12D 22L from 66 games, 1.64 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, PEC Zwolle are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.42 PPG from 33 outings (13W 8D 12L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 14W 7D 12L from 33 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.92 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 61%.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Current Season
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 18W 15D 33L in their last 66 games (1.05 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 32W 12D 22L in their last 66 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or PEC Zwolle away?
PEC Zwolle's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.42 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Waalwijk
3
Draws
2
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 1, PEC Zwolle have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when PEC Zwolle 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 64%, PEC Zwolle 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Waalwijk and 73% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Waalwijk's games and 64% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Waalwijk's matches and 73% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk and PEC Zwolle finished level at 1-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.89 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.23 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.89 / defence 1.36, drawn from 66/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 51% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 23%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 61%, PEC Zwolle 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.