Waalwijk 0-0 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Heracles travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025, 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Heracles — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Heracles's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Waalwijk's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Waalwijk, 2 for Heracles and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Heracles in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 57% versus Heracles 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 59% | Heracles 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.69 xG and Heracles 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.947 / defence 1.116 | Heracles attack 0.720 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.354. Data: 61 Waalwijk games / 61 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 51% | Draw 24% | Heracles 24%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Heracles 4.17. Waalwijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Heracles (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Waalwijk 40% | Heracles 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 51% | Draw 24% | Heracles 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Waalwijk 1.69 / Heracles 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.947 / def 1.116 | Heracles attack 0.720 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Heracles xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Heracles kick off?
Waalwijk vs Heracles kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Waalwijk 0 - 0 Heracles.
Where is Waalwijk vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Heracles part of?
Waalwijk vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 51% chance of winning, Heracles a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Waalwijk and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heracles?
Record (5 meetings): Waalwijk 2W | Draws 1 | Heracles 2W.
What form are Waalwijk and Heracles in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Heracles (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (0.95) and Heracles's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.09
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.78
1.09
Heracles xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
4%
22.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.09 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Heracles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 11W 14D 36L from 61 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 29L across 61 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 0.77 PPG, Heracles on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 7W 8D 15L from 30 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 5W 5D 20L across 30 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Heracles in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 11W 14D 36L in their last 61 games (0.77 PPG), while Heracles have gone 16W 16D 29L in their last 61 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Heracles away?
Waalwijk's home record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 0.97 PPG; Heracles away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Heracles runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2024, when Waalwijk won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
2
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, Heracles have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Waalwijk 0-0 Heracles.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 57%, Heracles 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Waalwijk and 60% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk have failed to score in 27% of games; Heracles in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 43% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Waalwijk's matches and 60% of Heracles's.
Do Waalwijk and Heracles tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Heracles in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Waalwijk's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk and Heracles finished level at 0-0 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.69 xG and Heracles 1.09 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Heracles landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.95 / defence 1.12 against Heracles attack 0.72 / defence 1.12, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 51% | Draw 24% | Heracles 24%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 59%, Heracles 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Heracles's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 0.77 PPG, Heracles 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.