Waalwijk 1-4 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 39%, yet in-form Ajax provide a compelling counter-argument — this Waalwijk vs Ajax fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Ajax travel to Mandemakers Stadion to take on Waalwijk. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022, 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajax stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajax away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ajax are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ajax in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Waalwijk, 2 for Ajax and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 2–3 with Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ajax in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 66% versus Ajax 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 52% | Ajax 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.86 xG and Ajax 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.253 / defence 1.087 | Ajax attack 1.300 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.294. Waalwijk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Ajax have an above-average attack strength of 1.300 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Waalwijk games / 44 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 23% | Ajax 38%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Ajax 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Waalwijk as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ajax (2.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 60% | Ajax 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 39% | Draw 23% | Ajax 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Waalwijk 1.86 / Ajax 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.253 / def 1.087 | Ajax attack 1.300 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Ajax xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Ajax kick off?
Waalwijk vs Ajax kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Waalwijk 1 - 4 Ajax.
Where is Waalwijk vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Ajax part of?
Waalwijk vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 39% chance of winning, Ajax a 38% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Waalwijk and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Ajax?
Record (2 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 0 | Ajax 2W.
What form are Waalwijk and Ajax in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Ajax (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Waalwijk's attack rating (1.25) and Ajax's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
39%
2.55
23%
4.38
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.69
1.83
Ajax xG
2.55
39%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
16%
6.23
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
6%
15.88
6%
16.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.83 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 16D 16L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax's form line: 34W 6D 4L from 44 games, 2.45 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ajax are the form team by 1.27 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (8W 5D 9L).
On the road, Ajax have gone 16W 4D 2L from 22 away games — 2.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Waalwijk are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 3.00 scored and 0.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajax in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Ajax in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 12W 16D 16L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Ajax have gone 34W 6D 4L in their last 44 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.32 PPG; Ajax away: 2.36 PPG.
Have Waalwijk or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Ajax in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waalwijk and Ajax runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ajax have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Ajax won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
0
Draws
8
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Ajax?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, Ajax have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Ajax 2-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 59%, Ajax 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Waalwijk) and 54% (Ajax).
On the defensive side: Ajax in 54%; Waalwijk have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Ajax?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 46% of Ajax's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waalwijk vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Waalwijk's recent games and 54% of Ajax's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waalwijk and Ajax tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Ajax in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajax run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Waalwijk 1-4 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.86 xG and Ajax 1.83 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Ajax outscored their 1.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.25 / defence 1.09 against Ajax attack 1.30 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 39% | Draw 23% | Ajax 38%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ajax win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 52%, Ajax 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.