Vitesse 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam make the trip to GelreDome to face Vitesse in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form
Vitesse (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Vitesse's home record at GelreDome: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Vitesse are significantly better at GelreDome than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Vitesse, 0.90 for Sparta Rotterdam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Vitesse lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Vitesse — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 54% versus Sparta Rotterdam 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 61% | Sparta Rotterdam 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.39 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.901 / defence 1.289 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.544 / defence 1.338. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.285. Sparta Rotterdam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.338 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Vitesse games / 28 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 48% | Draw 27% | Sparta Rotterdam 24%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Sparta Rotterdam 4.17. Vitesse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Vitesse 60% | Sparta Rotterdam 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 48% | Draw 27% | Sparta Rotterdam 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Vitesse 1.39 / Sparta Rotterdam 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.901 / def 1.289 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.544 / def 1.338 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Sparta Rotterdam xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 17:45 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Vitesse 0 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 48% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (1 meetings): Vitesse 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Rotterdam 0W.
What form are Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Vitesse (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.90x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (0.54x) against Vitesse's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.65
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.29
0.90
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
6%
16.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Vitesse and 0.90 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vitesse come into this having played 28 games, going 13W 5D 10L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Sparta Rotterdam sit at 0.79 PPG from 28 outings (4W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Vitesse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Vitesse's home form reads 6W 2D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 0.54 points per game from 13 outings (1W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vitesse are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 0.75 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Current Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 13W 5D 10L in their last 28 games (1.57 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 4W 10D 14L in their last 28 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Vitesse's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.54 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Rotterdam have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 0-4 on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vitesse
1
Draws
5
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 0, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2024, when Vitesse 1-4 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 69%, Sparta Rotterdam 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Vitesse and 54% for Sparta Rotterdam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Vitesse's recent matches and 38% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Vitesse's matches and 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sparta Rotterdam defy the odds to beat Vitesse 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Vitesse 0-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.39 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.90 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vitesse fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.90 / defence 1.29 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.54 / defence 1.34, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 48% | Draw 27% | Sparta Rotterdam 24%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Rotterdam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 61%, Sparta Rotterdam 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitesse arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.