Vitesse 1-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitesse at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 18 as Vitesse welcome PEC Zwolle to GelreDome. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Vitesse have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 3W 2D 3L at GelreDome — 1.38 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.38 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at GelreDome this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 7L across 8 road games this term (0.12 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Vitesse carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Vitesse, 0 for PEC Zwolle and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Vitesse winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Vitesse trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 59% versus PEC Zwolle 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 65% | PEC Zwolle 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.54 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.837 / defence 1.208 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.644 / defence 1.525. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.410. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.525 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Vitesse games / 17 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 47% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 27%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | PEC Zwolle 3.70. Vitesse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vitesse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 75% | PEC Zwolle 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 47% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Vitesse 1.54 / PEC Zwolle 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.837 / def 1.208 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.644 / def 1.525 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.10
PEC Zwolle xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 17:45 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle?
Vitesse 1 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 47% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Vitesse and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and PEC Zwolle?
Record (1 meetings): Vitesse 1W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are Vitesse and PEC Zwolle in?
Vitesse (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.91
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.63
1.10
PEC Zwolle xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
6%
17.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Vitesse and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.10 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vitesse's recent record stands at 9W 3D 5L from 17 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 13L across 17 games — 0.35 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vitesse by 1.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PEC Zwolle heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 3W 2D 3L from 8 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 0W 1D 7L across 8 trips, a 0.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.53 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 9W 3D 5L in their last 17 games (1.76 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 1W 3D 13L in their last 17 (0.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Vitesse's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.38 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and PEC Zwolle runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vitesse's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Vitesse
1
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and PEC Zwolle?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2024, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and PEC Zwolle?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 75%, PEC Zwolle 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Vitesse and 50% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Vitesse's games and 50% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Vitesse's matches and 50% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Vitesse and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vitesse edge out PEC Zwolle 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat PEC Zwolle 1-0 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.54 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.10 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.84 / defence 1.21 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.64 / defence 1.52, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 47% | Draw 26% | PEC Zwolle 27%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 65%, PEC Zwolle 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitesse arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.