Vitesse 1-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Feyenoord at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Feyenoord travel to GelreDome to take on Vitesse. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 January 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at GelreDome this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at GelreDome. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Vitesse are significantly better at GelreDome than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Feyenoord — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Vitesse, 2 for Feyenoord and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–4 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Vitesse in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 45% versus Feyenoord 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 53% | Feyenoord 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 0.91 xG and Feyenoord 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.705 / defence 0.839 | Feyenoord attack 1.471 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.485. Vitesse's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.471 — the away xG of 1.83 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Vitesse games / 51 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 17% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 57%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 5.88 | Draw 3.85 | Feyenoord 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Vitesse 30% | Feyenoord 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 17% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Vitesse 0.91 / Feyenoord 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.705 / def 0.839 | Feyenoord attack 1.471 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Feyenoord xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Feyenoord kick off?
Vitesse vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Vitesse 1 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is Vitesse vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Feyenoord part of?
Vitesse vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 17% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 57% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Vitesse and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Feyenoord?
Record (5 meetings): Vitesse 3W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 2W.
What form are Vitesse and Feyenoord in?
Vitesse (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.70) and Feyenoord's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
17%
6.01
26%
3.83
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.75
1.83
Feyenoord xG
6.01
17%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
3%
37.54
23%
4.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.8 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.83 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vitesse come into this having played 51 games, going 13W 13D 25L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.37 PPG from 51 outings (37W 10D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.35 PPG clear of Vitesse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vitesse's home form reads 6W 9D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.44 points per game from 25 outings (19W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.57 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord in 61%.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 13W 13D 25L in their last 51 games (1.02 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 37W 10D 4L in their last 51 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.08 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.44 PPG.
Have Vitesse or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and Feyenoord runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Feyenoord have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Feyenoord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Vitesse
0
Draws
3
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Feyenoord?
From 6 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 3, Feyenoord have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Vitesse 1-2 Feyenoord.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 44%, Feyenoord 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Vitesse) and 72% (Feyenoord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Feyenoord in 32%; Vitesse have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Vitesse's games and 68% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Vitesse's matches and 72% of Feyenoord's.
Do Vitesse and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Vitesse 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Vitesse 1-2 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 0.91 xG and Feyenoord 1.83 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.70 / defence 0.84 against Feyenoord attack 1.47 / defence 0.79, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 17% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 57%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 53%, Feyenoord 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.