Vitesse 0-0 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitesse host AZ Alkmaar at GelreDome in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse at GelreDome this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 home games — 1.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.17 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at GelreDome this season.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 2W 0D 5L from 7 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Vitesse are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 58% versus AZ Alkmaar 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 67% | AZ Alkmaar 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.35 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.866 / defence 1.374 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.824 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.328. AZ Alkmaar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Vitesse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Vitesse games / 12 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 34% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 41%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | AZ Alkmaar 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vitesse (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 83% | AZ Alkmaar 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 34% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Vitesse 1.35 / AZ Alkmaar 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.866 / def 1.374 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.824 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.50
AZ Alkmaar xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Vitesse 0 - 0 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 34% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar in?
Vitesse (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.87) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
34%
2.94
25%
4.01
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.85
1.50
AZ Alkmaar xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
8%
13.25
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.50 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Vitesse have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 6W 1D 5L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 5W 1D 6L from 12 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 1.58 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L). That actually lags their 1.58 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.92 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 6W 1D 5L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 5W 1D 6L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
Vitesse's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.17 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Vitesse
2
Draws
5
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 1, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vitesse at 83%, AZ Alkmaar at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Vitesse and 67% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Vitesse's games and 67% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Vitesse's matches and 67% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vitesse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar finished level at 0-0 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.35 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.50 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.3 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.87 / defence 1.37 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.82 / defence 1.27, drawn from 13/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 34% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 41%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 67%, AZ Alkmaar 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.58 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.