Utrecht 3-2 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utrecht vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Galgenwaard plays host to Utrecht versus Willem II in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Utrecht have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
Willem II's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Willem II have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Willem II's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Utrecht 1W, Willem II 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Utrecht 58% and Willem II 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 45% | Willem II 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.72 xG and Willem II 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.013 / defence 0.833 | Willem II attack 0.846 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.235. Data: 38 Utrecht games / 5 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 55% | Draw 29% | Willem II 16%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.82 | Draw 3.45 | Willem II 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Utrecht (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 50% | Willem II 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Willem II | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 55% | Draw 29% | Willem II 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Utrecht 1.72 / Willem II 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.013 / def 0.833 | Willem II attack 0.846 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Willem II xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Willem II kick off?
Utrecht vs Willem II kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Willem II?
Utrecht 3 - 2 Willem II.
Where is Utrecht vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Willem II part of?
Utrecht vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 55% chance of winning, Willem II a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Utrecht and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Willem II?
Record (2 meetings): Utrecht 1W | Draws 0 | Willem II 1W.
What form are Utrecht and Willem II in?
Utrecht (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Willem II (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Utrecht's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Willem II's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Willem II's attack (0.85x) against Utrecht's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 38/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
55%
1.83
29%
3.40
16%
6.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.59
0.87
Willem II xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
6.28
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
3%
35.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Utrecht and 0.87 for Willem II, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Willem II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Utrecht have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 17W 12D 11L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Willem II's form line: 24W 10D 6L from 40 games, 2.05 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Willem II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Utrecht.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Utrecht have posted 2.00 PPG from 19 outings (11W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Willem II have gone 9W 7D 3L from 19 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Utrecht are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 2.05 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Early Season
Willem II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Willem II in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 17W 12D 11L in their last 40 games (1.58 PPG), while Willem II have gone 24W 10D 6L in their last 40 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Willem II away?
Utrecht's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 2.00 PPG; Willem II away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Utrecht go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 5-1 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Willem II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Utrecht
0
Draws
1
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Willem II?
From 4 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 3, Willem II have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Willem II 2-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Willem II?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 63%, Willem II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Utrecht) and 26% (Willem II).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Utrecht's games and 58% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Utrecht's recent games and 26% of Willem II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utrecht and Willem II tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Willem II in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out Willem II 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Willem II 3-2 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 6, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.72 xG and Willem II 0.87 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Utrecht beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Willem II outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.83 against Willem II attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 38/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 55% | Draw 29% | Willem II 16%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 45%, Willem II 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.58. Form was overturned, with Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.