Utrecht 2-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utrecht vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Utrecht and Waalwijk meet at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Utrecht's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games (1.75 PPG). Last five: W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.75. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Utrecht. A 0.75 PPG lead over Waalwijk (1.75 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Waalwijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utrecht 25% versus Waalwijk 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utrecht 50% | Waalwijk 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 2.40 xG and Waalwijk 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.347 / defence 1.007 | Waalwijk attack 1.026 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.095. Utrecht carry an above-average attack strength of 1.347 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Utrecht games / 4 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 65% | Draw 18% | Waalwijk 16%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 1.54 | Draw 5.56 | Waalwijk 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Utrecht (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Utrecht at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Utrecht 25% | Waalwijk 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 65% | Draw 18% | Waalwijk 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 62% | xG Utrecht 2.40 / Waalwijk 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.347 / def 1.007 | Waalwijk attack 1.026 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Waalwijk xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Waalwijk kick off?
Utrecht vs Waalwijk kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Utrecht 2 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is Utrecht vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Waalwijk part of?
Utrecht vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 65% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Utrecht and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Utrecht and Waalwijk in?
Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.75 | L5 W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (1.35) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (1.03x) against Utrecht's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
65%
1.53
18%
5.50
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.54
1.13
Waalwijk xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.50
18%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
9%
11.08
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
1%
67.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.13 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Utrecht's recent record stands at 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Utrecht by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Utrecht are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.50 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Utrecht have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 75%.
Defensively: Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Utrecht or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Utrecht have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won 0-4 on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utrecht have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Utrecht
5
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 3, Waalwijk have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Waalwijk 0-4 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Waalwijk?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Utrecht see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 25%, Waalwijk 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Utrecht and 75% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utrecht keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Utrecht have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Utrecht's recent matches and 75% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Utrecht vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Utrecht's matches and 75% of Waalwijk's.
Do Utrecht and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Utrecht and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht and Waalwijk finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 2.40 xG and Waalwijk 1.13 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.35 / defence 1.01 against Waalwijk attack 1.03 / defence 1.37, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 65% | Draw 18% | Waalwijk 16%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 50%, Waalwijk 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Utrecht shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.