Utrecht 3-2 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 41%, yet in-form Cambuur provide a compelling counter-argument — this Utrecht vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Utrecht host Cambuur at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Utrecht stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utrecht's home record at Stadion Galgenwaard: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Cambuur are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Utrecht, 1 for Cambuur and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Utrecht in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Utrecht 55% and Cambuur 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Utrecht 70% | Cambuur 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utrecht 1.49 xG and Cambuur 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utrecht attack 1.155 / defence 1.072 | Cambuur attack 0.884 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.060 / away 1.378. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Utrecht games / 20 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utrecht 41% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 33%. Fair-value odds: Utrecht 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Cambuur 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utrecht are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambuur (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Utrecht 60% | Cambuur 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utrecht vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utrecht 41% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Utrecht 1.49 / Cambuur 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Utrecht attack 1.155 / def 1.072 | Cambuur attack 0.884 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.060 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Cambuur xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utrecht vs Cambuur kick off?
Utrecht vs Cambuur kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Utrecht 3 - 2 Cambuur.
Where is Utrecht vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Utrecht vs Cambuur part of?
Utrecht vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Utrecht a 41% chance of winning, Cambuur a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Utrecht and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Utrecht vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Cambuur?
Record (1 meetings): Utrecht 0W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are Utrecht and Cambuur in?
Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Cambuur (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Utrecht's attack rating (1.16) and Cambuur's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Utrecht's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
41%
2.43
26%
3.84
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.79
1.30
Cambuur xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
7%
13.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Utrecht and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Utrecht and 1.30 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Utrecht vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Utrecht have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 9W 5D 6L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur's form line: 9W 3D 8L from 20 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Utrecht on 1.60 PPG, Cambuur on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Utrecht have posted 2.10 PPG from 10 outings (6W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Utrecht are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Utrecht are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.65 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 70%.
Defensively: Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utrecht
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utrecht and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Utrecht have gone 9W 5D 6L in their last 20 games (1.60 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 9W 3D 8L in their last 20 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utrecht at home or Cambuur away?
Utrecht's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utrecht at home: 2.10 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Utrecht or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cambuur in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Utrecht and Cambuur runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Utrecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Utrecht's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Utrecht
1
Draws
1
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utrecht and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, Utrecht have won 2, Cambuur have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Utrecht and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Cambuur 0-3 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Utrecht and Cambuur?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cambuur see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utrecht 60%, Cambuur 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Utrecht and 60% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utrecht home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utrecht play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Utrecht's games and 50% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utrecht vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Utrecht's matches and 60% of Cambuur's.
Do Utrecht and Cambuur tend to score early?
Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out Cambuur 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Cambuur 3-2 at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utrecht 1.49 xG and Cambuur 1.30 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Utrecht beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utrecht attack 1.16 / defence 1.07 against Cambuur attack 0.88 / defence 1.21, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utrecht 41% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 33%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utrecht 70%, Cambuur 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utrecht's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambuur's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utrecht 1.60 PPG, Cambuur 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.