Sparta Rotterdam 0-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 18 as Sparta Rotterdam welcome Waalwijk to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 24 January 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 7W 1D 2L at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Sparta Rotterdam have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sparta Rotterdam, 1 for Waalwijk and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Waalwijk trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 46% versus Waalwijk 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 46% | Waalwijk 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.99 xG and Waalwijk 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.043 / defence 0.851 | Waalwijk attack 0.867 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.209. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Sparta Rotterdam games / 50 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 61% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 15%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Rotterdam (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Jan 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 61% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.99 / Waalwijk 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.043 / def 0.851 | Waalwijk attack 0.867 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Waalwijk xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 24 January 2023 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 61% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk?
Record (3 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 0W | Draws 2 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 1.04x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
61%
1.63
24%
4.15
15%
6.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.88
0.89
Waalwijk xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
6.89
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
2%
50.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 0.89 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 17W 15D 18L from 50 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 20L across 50 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.32 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 10W 7D 8L from 25 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 4W 11D 10L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.32 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 66%.
Last 50 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 17W 15D 18L in their last 50 games (1.32 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 13W 17D 20L in their last 50 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Waalwijk away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.48 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
5
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, Waalwijk have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 52%, Waalwijk 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 56% (Waalwijk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 72% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 56% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sparta Rotterdam's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk finished level at 0-0 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.99 xG and Waalwijk 0.89 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Waalwijk landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.04 / defence 0.85 against Waalwijk attack 0.87 / defence 1.31, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 61% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 15%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 46%, Waalwijk 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Waalwijk's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.32 PPG, Waalwijk 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.