Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 26 as Sparta Rotterdam welcome PEC Zwolle to Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Sparta Rotterdam have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sparta Rotterdam, 3 for PEC Zwolle and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with PEC Zwolle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 52% versus PEC Zwolle 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 46% | PEC Zwolle 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.85 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.808 / defence 0.909 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.012 / defence 1.390. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.331. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.390 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Sparta Rotterdam games / 59 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 51% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 24%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | PEC Zwolle 4.17. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 40% | PEC Zwolle 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 51% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.85 / PEC Zwolle 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.808 / def 0.909 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.012 / def 1.390 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.22
PEC Zwolle xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 51% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle?
Record (7 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 2W | Draws 2 | PEC Zwolle 3W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.81x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.14
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.08
1.22
PEC Zwolle xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
4%
26.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.22 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 16D 23L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.17 PPG from 59 outings (17W 18D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.29 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sparta Rotterdam's home form reads 9W 9D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 0.83 points per game from 29 outings (4W 12D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.31 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 20W 16D 23L in their last 59 games (1.29 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 17W 18D 24L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.24 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
4
Draws
3
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle?
From 9 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 52%, PEC Zwolle 76% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 62% (PEC Zwolle).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 76% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 62% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle finished level at 1-1 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 26, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.85 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.22 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.81 / defence 0.91 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.01 / defence 1.39, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 51% | Draw 24% | PEC Zwolle 24%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 46%, PEC Zwolle 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.29 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.