Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam host Fortuna Sittard at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 4W 1D 5L at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sparta Rotterdam at 1.30 PPG versus Fortuna Sittard's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sparta Rotterdam: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for Fortuna Sittard, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 3–0 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Rotterdam and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Fortuna Sittard in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 52% versus Fortuna Sittard 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 46% | Fortuna Sittard 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.82 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.863 / defence 1.196 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.917 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.463. Fortuna Sittard bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Sparta Rotterdam games / 46 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 43% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Sittard 34%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Fortuna Sittard 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Fortuna Sittard 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 43% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Sittard 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.82 / Fortuna Sittard 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.863 / def 1.196 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.917 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Fortuna Sittard xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 43% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (8 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 5W | Draws 2 | Fortuna Sittard 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
43%
2.31
22%
4.46
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.43
1.60
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
6%
18.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.60 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam come into this having played 46 games, going 14W 13D 19L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Sittard sit at 1.24 PPG from 46 outings (16W 9D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sparta Rotterdam on 1.20 PPG, Fortuna Sittard on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sparta Rotterdam's home form reads 6W 7D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Sittard have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (4W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortuna Sittard's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.20 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 14W 13D 19L in their last 46 games (1.20 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 16W 9D 21L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.09 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sparta Rotterdam
4
Draws
1
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, Fortuna Sittard have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 2-2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 56%, Fortuna Sittard 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 52% (Fortuna Sittard).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 26% of games; Fortuna Sittard in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 65% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 52% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam and Fortuna Sittard finished level at 1-1 at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.82 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.60 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.86 / defence 1.20 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.92 / defence 1.23, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 43% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Sittard 34%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 46%, Fortuna Sittard 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Rotterdam 1.20 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.