Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam meet at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sparta Rotterdam's home record at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel this season.
FC Volendam have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Sparta Rotterdam against 1.50 for FC Volendam. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Sparta Rotterdam half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 45% versus FC Volendam 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 40% | FC Volendam 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 2.31 xG and FC Volendam 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.877 / defence 1.008 | FC Volendam attack 0.912 / defence 1.623. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.417. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.623 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Sparta Rotterdam games / 4 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 60% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 21%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.67 | Draw 5.26 | FC Volendam 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Rotterdam (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 60% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 2.31 / FC Volendam 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.877 / def 1.008 | FC Volendam attack 0.912 / def 1.623 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.30
FC Volendam xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Sparta Rotterdam 4 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 60% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.91x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
60%
1.67
19%
5.15
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.61
1.30
FC Volendam xG
1.67
60%
Home win
5.15
19%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
10%
10.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
2%
48.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.30 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 9W 12D 17L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam's form line: 21W 11D 6L from 38 games, 1.95 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.00 PPG from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 8W 8D 3L from 19 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.03 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 74%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 9W 12D 17L in their last 38 games (1.03 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 21W 11D 6L in their last 38 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 on 3 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Sparta Rotterdam
0
Draws
1
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, FC Volendam have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 53%, FC Volendam 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 58% (FC Volendam).
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 32%; Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 68% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 58% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Rotterdam run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat FC Volendam 4-0 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 5, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 2.31 xG and FC Volendam 1.30 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Volendam landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against FC Volendam attack 0.91 / defence 1.62, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 60% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 21%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 40%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Sparta Rotterdam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.