Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam meet at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sparta Rotterdam's home record at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Volendam have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Sparta Rotterdam. A 0.70 PPG lead over FC Volendam (1.40 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sparta Rotterdam register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, FC Volendam in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sparta Rotterdam, 1 for FC Volendam and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 4–1 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sparta Rotterdam half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 53% versus FC Volendam 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 59% | FC Volendam 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 2.01 xG and FC Volendam 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.947 / defence 1.105 | FC Volendam attack 0.776 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.422. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Sparta Rotterdam games / 64 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 54% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 21%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | FC Volendam 4.76. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.01 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 70% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 54% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 2.01 / FC Volendam 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.947 / def 1.105 | FC Volendam attack 0.776 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.22
FC Volendam xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 54% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam?
Record (3 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 2W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.78x) against Sparta Rotterdam's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
54%
1.85
25%
4.02
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
3.23
1.22
FC Volendam xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
3%
35.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.22 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 28W 15D 21L record — D-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
FC Volendam's form line: 14W 13D 37L from 64 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Sparta Rotterdam are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.56 PPG from 32 outings (14W 8D 10L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 2W 10D 20L from 32 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.12 scored and 2.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 62%.
Last 64 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 28W 15D 21L in their last 64 games (1.55 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 14W 13D 37L in their last 64 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or FC Volendam away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.56 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 4-0 on 3 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Sparta Rotterdam
0
Draws
1
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, FC Volendam have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 56%, FC Volendam 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Sparta Rotterdam and 66% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 66% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 66% of FC Volendam's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Rotterdam edge out FC Volendam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat FC Volendam 1-0 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 2.01 xG and FC Volendam 1.22 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Rotterdam fell 1.0 short of their projected output. FC Volendam landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.95 / defence 1.10 against FC Volendam attack 0.78 / defence 1.24, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 54% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 21%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 59%, FC Volendam 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Rotterdam arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.