Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel to take on Sparta Rotterdam. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sparta Rotterdam have won 0, AZ Alkmaar 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 1–3 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 43% versus AZ Alkmaar 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 40% | AZ Alkmaar 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.03 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.754 / defence 1.164 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.145 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.223. Sparta Rotterdam's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AZ Alkmaar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Sparta Rotterdam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Sparta Rotterdam games / 30 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 24% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 51%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | AZ Alkmaar 1.96. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Rotterdam 40% | AZ Alkmaar 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 24% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.03 / AZ Alkmaar 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.754 / def 1.164 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.145 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.63
AZ Alkmaar xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Sparta Rotterdam 1 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 24% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (1 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 0W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sparta Rotterdam's attack rating (0.75) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
24%
4.19
25%
4.05
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.66
1.63
AZ Alkmaar xG
4.19
24%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
5%
21.39
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.63 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Sparta Rotterdam have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 5W 10D 15L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 18W 4D 8L from 30 games, 1.93 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sparta Rotterdam.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (3W 6D 6L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 7W 2D 6L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.93 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 5W 10D 15L in their last 30 games (0.83 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 18W 4D 8L in their last 30 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.00 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AZ Alkmaar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
2
Draws
6
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 53%, AZ Alkmaar 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sparta Rotterdam) and 73% (AZ Alkmaar).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam have failed to score in 33% of games; AZ Alkmaar in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 73% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent games and 73% of AZ Alkmaar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 31, as Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.03 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.63 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.75 / defence 1.16 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.15 / defence 1.22, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 24% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 51%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 40%, AZ Alkmaar 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.