PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours PSV Eindhoven (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PSV Eindhoven face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Feyenoord make the trip to Philips Stadion to face PSV Eindhoven in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
PSV Eindhoven's overall Eredivisie record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Philips Stadion, PSV Eindhoven have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.30 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Philips Stadion this season.
Feyenoord (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form favours the hosts. PSV Eindhoven's 2.80 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Feyenoord's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, PSV Eindhoven have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 9 meetings, with Feyenoord managing just 1 victories and 3 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 3–2 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PSV Eindhoven and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
PSV Eindhoven — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 61%.
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PSV Eindhoven 68% and Feyenoord 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PSV Eindhoven 83% | Feyenoord 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PSV Eindhoven 2.39 xG and Feyenoord 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.530 / defence 1.160 | Feyenoord attack 1.211 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.457. PSV Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.530 — their λ of 2.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 PSV Eindhoven games / 54 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 47% | Draw 19% | Feyenoord 34%. Fair-value odds: PSV Eindhoven 2.13 | Draw 5.26 | Feyenoord 2.94. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 2.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 82% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 79% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PSV Eindhoven 80% | Feyenoord 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Philips Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PSV Eindhoven 47% | Draw 19% | Feyenoord 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 79% | xG PSV Eindhoven 2.39 / Feyenoord 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: PSV Eindhoven attack 1.530 / def 1.160 | Feyenoord attack 1.211 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.457 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
PSV Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Feyenoord xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord kick off?
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Philips Stadion.
What was the final score in PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
PSV Eindhoven 3 - 0 Feyenoord.
Where is PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Philips Stadion.
What competition is PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord part of?
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives PSV Eindhoven a 47% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 34% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord?
Record (9 meetings): PSV Eindhoven 5W | Draws 3 | Feyenoord 1W.
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord in?
PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Feyenoord (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PSV Eindhoven's attack at 1.53x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 2.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.21x) against PSV Eindhoven's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 2.05.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 7.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (6.9%), 1-1 (6.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
47%
2.15
19%
5.17
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
1 – 2
5.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
PSV Eindhoven xG
Total xG
4.44
2.05
Feyenoord xG
2.15
47%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
46%
Over 4.5
2.17
54%
Under 4.5
1.85
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.26
21%
BTTS No
4.78
Clean Sheet
13%
7.74
9%
10.90
Win to Nil
6%
16.62
3%
32.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for PSV Eindhoven and 2.05 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 4.44.
How confident is the prediction model for PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PSV Eindhoven come into this having played 54 games, going 42W 6D 6L for 2.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 1.98 PPG from 54 outings (32W 11D 11L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PSV Eindhoven's home form reads 19W 5D 2L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 1.88 points per game from 26 outings (14W 7D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PSV Eindhoven are averaging 3.04 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.35 scored and 1.24 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: PSV Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Feyenoord in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
PSV Eindhoven have gone 42W 6D 6L in their last 54 games (2.44 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 32W 11D 11L in their last 54 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PSV Eindhoven at home or Feyenoord away?
PSV Eindhoven's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PSV Eindhoven at home: 2.38 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: PSV Eindhoven have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 0-4 on 19 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PSV Eindhoven have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
PSV Eindhoven
3
Draws
1
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, PSV Eindhoven have won 6, Feyenoord have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 3-0 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PSV Eindhoven 65%, Feyenoord 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for PSV Eindhoven and 62% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PSV Eindhoven home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PSV Eindhoven play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of PSV Eindhoven's games and 62% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of PSV Eindhoven's matches and 62% of Feyenoord's.
Do PSV Eindhoven and Feyenoord tend to score early?
PSV Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Feyenoord.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Feyenoord 3-0 at Philips Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PSV Eindhoven 2.39 xG and Feyenoord 2.05 xG, a combined 4.44. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Feyenoord landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PSV Eindhoven attack 1.53 / defence 1.16 against Feyenoord attack 1.21 / defence 0.94, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PSV Eindhoven 47% | Draw 19% | Feyenoord 34%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PSV Eindhoven 83%, Feyenoord 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Feyenoord's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.98. That form edge translated into the three points. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.