PEC Zwolle 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 40%, yet in-form Sparta Rotterdam provide a compelling counter-argument — this PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 6 as PEC Zwolle welcome Sparta Rotterdam to MAC³PARK Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 0W 0D 5L from 5 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have recorded 1W 2D 2L from 5 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sparta Rotterdam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sparta Rotterdam — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 100% of games.
Sparta Rotterdam in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (PEC Zwolle 0% | Sparta Rotterdam 60%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PEC Zwolle 0% | Sparta Rotterdam 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.16 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.663 / defence 1.119 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.602 / defence 1.453. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.422. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sparta Rotterdam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.453 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 PEC Zwolle games / 5 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 30%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Sparta Rotterdam 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sparta Rotterdam (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 0% | Sparta Rotterdam 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.16 / Sparta Rotterdam 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.663 / def 1.119 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.602 / def 1.453 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Sparta Rotterdam xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 40% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 0W-0D-5L in 5 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.66) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
40%
2.47
30%
3.38
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.12
0.96
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.96 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 0W 0D 5L from 5 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 2L across 5 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Rotterdam by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PEC Zwolle heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Sparta Rotterdam in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 0D 5L in their last 5 games (0.00 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 3, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — PEC Zwolle 0% BTTS, Sparta Rotterdam 60%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for PEC Zwolle and 40% for Sparta Rotterdam.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 100% of games; Sparta Rotterdam in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of PEC Zwolle's recent matches and 60% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 40% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 6, as PEC Zwolle and Sparta Rotterdam drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.16 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.96 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.66 / defence 1.12 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.60 / defence 1.45, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 40% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 30%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 0%, Sparta Rotterdam 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Rotterdam arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PEC Zwolle scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Sparta Rotterdam conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.