PEC Zwolle 0-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PEC Zwolle at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NEC Nijmegen make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
PEC Zwolle's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at MAC³PARK Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NEC Nijmegen (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.00 for NEC Nijmegen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, NEC Nijmegen have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to PEC Zwolle's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
It is worth noting that NEC Nijmegen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 61% versus NEC Nijmegen 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 57% | NEC Nijmegen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.72 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.865 / defence 1.010 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.848 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.296. Data: 51 PEC Zwolle games / 51 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 52% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 24%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | NEC Nijmegen 4.17. PEC Zwolle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PEC Zwolle if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: PEC Zwolle 60% | NEC Nijmegen 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 52% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.72 / NEC Nijmegen 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.865 / def 1.010 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.848 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.11
NEC Nijmegen xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
PEC Zwolle 0 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 52% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (5 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 2 | NEC Nijmegen 3W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.86x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (0.85x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.20
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.83
1.11
NEC Nijmegen xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
4%
22.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.11 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 13W 14D 24L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen's form line: 19W 13D 19L from 51 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.37 for NEC Nijmegen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (9W 3D 13L).
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 8W 7D 10L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.75 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 13W 14D 24L in their last 51 games (1.04 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.20 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: NEC Nijmegen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
PEC Zwolle
3
Draws
6
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen?
From 9 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 0, NEC Nijmegen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 60%, NEC Nijmegen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for PEC Zwolle and 64% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of PEC Zwolle's games and 52% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 64% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do PEC Zwolle and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NEC Nijmegen defy the odds to beat PEC Zwolle 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat PEC Zwolle 0-1 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.72 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.11 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PEC Zwolle fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 52% | Draw 24% | NEC Nijmegen 24%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a NEC Nijmegen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 57%, NEC Nijmegen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.04 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.