PEC Zwolle 0-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Feyenoord make the trip to MAC³PARK Stadion to face PEC Zwolle in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 October 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
PEC Zwolle (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle at MAC³PARK Stadion this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MAC³PARK Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Feyenoord have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Feyenoord have posted 9W 1D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.80 exceeds their overall 2.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Feyenoord arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for PEC Zwolle, 2 for Feyenoord and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 58% versus Feyenoord 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 66% | Feyenoord 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 0.85 xG and Feyenoord 2.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.661 / defence 1.150 | Feyenoord attack 1.645 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.366. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.661 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.645 — the away xG of 2.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 PEC Zwolle games / 41 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 9% | Draw 17% | Feyenoord 74%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 11.11 | Draw 5.88 | Feyenoord 1.35. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 30% | Feyenoord 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Oct 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 9% | Draw 17% | Feyenoord 74% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 54% | xG PEC Zwolle 0.85 / Feyenoord 2.58 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.661 / def 1.150 | Feyenoord attack 1.645 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
2.58
Feyenoord xG
54%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 8 October 2023 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
PEC Zwolle 0 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 9% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 74% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord?
Record (2 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 2W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PEC Zwolle's attack at 0.66x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.65x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 2.58.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (9.2%), 1-2 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
9%
10.55
17%
6.03
74%
1.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.44
2.58
Feyenoord xG
10.55
9%
Home win
6.03
17%
Draw
1.35
74%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
8%
13.26
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
1%
139.91
31%
3.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 3.1 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.58 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PEC Zwolle come into this having played 41 games, going 25W 5D 11L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.41 PPG from 41 outings (30W 9D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
PEC Zwolle's home form reads 14W 2D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.45 points per game from 20 outings (15W 4D 1L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.61 scored and 0.88 conceded. PEC Zwolle's scoring rate against Feyenoord's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord in 61%.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 25W 5D 11L in their last 41 games (1.95 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 30W 9D 2L in their last 41 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 2.20 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.45 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Feyenoord have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-0 on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PEC Zwolle have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
8
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 0, Feyenoord have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 0-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 50%, Feyenoord 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for PEC Zwolle and 70% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of PEC Zwolle's games and 70% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 70% of Feyenoord's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Feyenoord tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat PEC Zwolle 0-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 0.85 xG and Feyenoord 2.58 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. PEC Zwolle fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.66 / defence 1.15 against Feyenoord attack 1.65 / defence 0.79, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 9% | Draw 17% | Feyenoord 74%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 66%, Feyenoord 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Feyenoord's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.95. That form edge translated into the three points. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.