PEC Zwolle 1-3 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ajax (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PEC Zwolle face Ajax.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 27 as PEC Zwolle welcome Ajax to MAC³PARK Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's home record at MAC³PARK Stadion: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Ajax have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ajax have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Ajax's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of PEC Zwolle's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for PEC Zwolle, 2 for Ajax and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
PEC Zwolle in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Ajax in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PEC Zwolle 58% and Ajax 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (PEC Zwolle 62% | Ajax 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.31 xG and Ajax 2.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.675 / defence 1.388 | Ajax attack 1.322 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.348. PEC Zwolle's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 1.31 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ajax bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ajax have an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — the away xG of 2.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 PEC Zwolle games / 60 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 18% | Draw 20% | Ajax 62%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 5.56 | Draw 5.00 | Ajax 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 2.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ajax at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 50% | Ajax 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 18% | Draw 20% | Ajax 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 68% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.31 / Ajax 2.47 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.675 / def 1.388 | Ajax attack 1.322 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Ajax (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
2.47
Ajax xG
68%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Ajax kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Ajax kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
PEC Zwolle 1 - 3 Ajax.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Ajax part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 18% chance of winning, Ajax a 62% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Ajax?
Record (3 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 1 | Ajax 2W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Ajax in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Ajax (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.68) and Ajax's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus PEC Zwolle's defence, projects 2.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 1-3 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
18%
5.47
20%
5.10
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.5%
Away win
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
3.79
2.47
Ajax xG
5.47
18%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
8%
11.86
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
2%
64.83
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 2.47 for Ajax, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 30W 11D 19L from 60 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 12L across 60 games — 1.83 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PEC Zwolle on 1.68 PPG, Ajax on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 16W 5D 9L from 30 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ajax's away record stands at 14W 8D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.38 scored and 1.42 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax in 70%.
Last 60 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Blended
Ajax
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Ajax in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 30W 11D 19L in their last 60 games (1.68 PPG), while Ajax have gone 31W 17D 12L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Ajax away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.77 PPG; Ajax away: 1.67 PPG.
Have PEC Zwolle or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
PEC Zwolle have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ajax in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PEC Zwolle and Ajax runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Ajax won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PEC Zwolle's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PEC Zwolle
2
Draws
6
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Ajax?
From 8 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 0, Ajax have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when PEC Zwolle 0-0 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between PEC Zwolle and Ajax?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — PEC Zwolle at 53%, Ajax at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for PEC Zwolle and 77% for Ajax. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of PEC Zwolle's games and 77% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 77% of Ajax's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Ajax tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ajax in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ajax cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat PEC Zwolle 1-3 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.31 xG and Ajax 2.47 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.68 / defence 1.39 against Ajax attack 1.32 / defence 1.22, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 18% | Draw 20% | Ajax 62%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 62%, Ajax 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Ajax's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 1.68 PPG, Ajax 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.