NEC Nijmegen 3-3 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 45%, yet in-form PSV Eindhoven provide a compelling counter-argument — this NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven meet at Goffertstadion in Eredivisie (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
NEC Nijmegen's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, NEC Nijmegen have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PSV Eindhoven (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PSV Eindhoven's away record over their last 10 away games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
PSV Eindhoven arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and PSV Eindhoven's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 70% of PSV Eindhoven's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, PSV Eindhoven have the stronger record — 6 wins to NEC Nijmegen's 1, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended NEC Nijmegen 0–2 PSV Eindhoven — a PSV Eindhoven win.
The H2H data backs the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 6 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
PSV Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 61%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 59% versus PSV Eindhoven 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 67% | PSV Eindhoven 76%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: NEC Nijmegen surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while PSV Eindhoven have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 83% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 1.97 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.200 / defence 0.899 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.381 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.350. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack rating of 1.381, which lifts their away xG to 1.68. Data: built from NEC Nijmegen's last 53 games and PSV Eindhoven's last 54.
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 45% | Draw 22% | PSV Eindhoven 33%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 2.23 | Draw 4.56 | PSV Eindhoven 3.02. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (1.97 / 1.68) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PSV Eindhoven (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (NEC Nijmegen's last 10 home games and PSV Eindhoven's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NEC Nijmegen 70% (last 10 home games) | PSV Eindhoven 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 21 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 45% | Draw 22% | PSV Eindhoven 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG NEC Nijmegen 1.97 / PSV Eindhoven 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.200 / def 0.899 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.381 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.68
PSV Eindhoven xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven FAQs
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
NEC Nijmegen 3 - 3 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 21) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 45% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 33% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.20x the league average against PSV Eindhoven's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (1.38x) against NEC Nijmegen's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from NEC Nijmegen's last 53 games and PSV Eindhoven's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
45%
2.23
22%
4.56
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.65
1.68
PSV Eindhoven xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
8%
11.89
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.68 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, NEC Nijmegen have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 21W 13D 20L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 45W 5D 4L from 54 games, 2.59 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NEC Nijmegen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NEC Nijmegen have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 27 home games (12W 6D 9L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 20W 3D 4L from their last 27 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 3.26 scored and 0.76 conceded. NEC Nijmegen's scoring rate against PSV Eindhoven's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PSV Eindhoven in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
NEC Nijmegen (Home) vs PSV Eindhoven (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven Form FAQs
What form are NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 21W 13D 20L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 45W 5D 4L in their last 54 (2.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.56 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.33 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won PSV Eindhoven 4-0 NEC Nijmegen on 16 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NEC Nijmegen have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
7
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: PSV Eindhoven 2-3 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 67%, PSV Eindhoven 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for NEC Nijmegen and 74% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: PSV Eindhoven in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 56% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 74% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 82% of PSV Eindhoven's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 21, as NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven drew 3-3 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 1.97 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.68 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.20 / defence 0.90 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.38 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 45% | Draw 22% | PSV Eindhoven 33%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 67%, PSV Eindhoven 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.59 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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