NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours NEC Nijmegen (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as NEC Nijmegen face Heracles.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 22 as NEC Nijmegen welcome Heracles to Goffertstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Goffertstadion this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Heracles have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
NEC Nijmegen are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NEC Nijmegen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Heracles in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for NEC Nijmegen, 2 for Heracles and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 4–1 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Heracles in-play tendencies (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NEC Nijmegen 60% and Heracles 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NEC Nijmegen 69% | Heracles 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.72 xG and Heracles 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.254 / defence 0.973 | Heracles attack 0.879 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.427. NEC Nijmegen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 2.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.326 — this is suppressing NEC Nijmegen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 NEC Nijmegen games / 55 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 69% | Draw 16% | Heracles 15%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.45 | Draw 6.25 | Heracles 6.67. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (69%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.94. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.94 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.72 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 60% | Heracles 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 69% | Draw 16% | Heracles 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 66% | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.72 / Heracles 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.254 / def 0.973 | Heracles attack 0.879 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.427 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.72
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Heracles xG
66%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
NEC Nijmegen 4 - 1 Heracles.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 69% chance of winning, Heracles a 15% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Heracles?
Record (7 meetings): NEC Nijmegen 4W | Draws 1 | Heracles 2W.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Heracles in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Heracles (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from NEC Nijmegen's attack rating (1.25) and Heracles's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
69%
1.45
16%
6.17
15%
6.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.72
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
3.94
1.22
Heracles xG
1.45
69%
Home win
6.17
16%
Draw
6.74
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
7%
15.13
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
1%
102.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.72 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.22 for Heracles, a combined total of 3.94.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NEC Nijmegen's recent record stands at 23W 12D 20L from 55 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 28L across 55 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours NEC Nijmegen by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Heracles heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, NEC Nijmegen have managed 12W 8D 6L from 26 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Heracles's away record stands at 4W 4D 18L across 26 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.31 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Heracles in 62%.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Heracles in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 23W 12D 20L in their last 55 games (1.47 PPG), while Heracles have gone 14W 13D 28L in their last 55 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Heracles away?
NEC Nijmegen's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.69 PPG; Heracles away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NEC Nijmegen and Heracles runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: NEC Nijmegen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2025, when NEC Nijmegen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NEC Nijmegen's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
2
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 5, Heracles have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Heracles?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 73%, Heracles 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for NEC Nijmegen and 62% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Heracles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of NEC Nijmegen's games and 54% of Heracles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of NEC Nijmegen's matches and 62% of Heracles's.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Heracles tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Heracles in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NEC Nijmegen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Heracles.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Heracles 4-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.72 xG and Heracles 1.22 xG, a combined 3.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against Heracles attack 0.88 / defence 1.33, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 69% | Draw 16% | Heracles 15%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 69%, Heracles 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Heracles's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm. Heracles (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.