NEC Nijmegen 3-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this NEC Nijmegen vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 17 as NEC Nijmegen welcome Emmen to Goffertstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 January 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen's home record at Goffertstadion: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Emmen — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Emmen have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NEC Nijmegen at 1.20 PPG versus Emmen's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
NEC Nijmegen in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Emmen in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NEC Nijmegen 52% versus Emmen 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NEC Nijmegen 38% | Emmen 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NEC Nijmegen 2.03 xG and Emmen 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.117 / defence 0.976 | Emmen attack 0.695 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.241. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing NEC Nijmegen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 NEC Nijmegen games / 16 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 63% | Draw 24% | Emmen 13%. Fair-value odds: NEC Nijmegen 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Emmen 7.69. The model has a clear lean to NEC Nijmegen (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NEC Nijmegen 70% | Emmen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NEC Nijmegen vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Goffertstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Jan 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NEC Nijmegen 63% | Draw 24% | Emmen 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 51% | xG NEC Nijmegen 2.03 / Emmen 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: NEC Nijmegen attack 1.117 / def 0.976 | Emmen attack 0.695 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
NEC Nijmegen xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Emmen xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NEC Nijmegen vs Emmen kick off?
NEC Nijmegen vs Emmen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 21 January 2023 at Goffertstadion.
What was the final score in NEC Nijmegen vs Emmen?
NEC Nijmegen 3 - 1 Emmen.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Goffertstadion.
What competition is NEC Nijmegen vs Emmen part of?
NEC Nijmegen vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NEC Nijmegen vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives NEC Nijmegen a 63% chance of winning, Emmen a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both NEC Nijmegen and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will NEC Nijmegen vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Emmen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Emmen in?
NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Emmen (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NEC Nijmegen's attack at 1.12x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus NEC Nijmegen's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
63%
1.59
24%
4.10
13%
7.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
NEC Nijmegen xG
Total xG
2.87
0.84
Emmen xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
7.92
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
60.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NEC Nijmegen vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are NEC Nijmegen and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen and 0.84 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for NEC Nijmegen vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NEC Nijmegen come into this having played 50 games, going 13W 18D 19L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.82 PPG from 50 outings (27W 10D 13L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
NEC Nijmegen's home form reads 4W 11D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 1.48 points per game from 25 outings (11W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.48 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NEC Nijmegen and Emmen in coming into this match?
NEC Nijmegen have gone 13W 18D 19L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Emmen have gone 27W 10D 13L in their last 50 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NEC Nijmegen at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NEC Nijmegen at home: 0.92 PPG; Emmen away: 1.48 PPG.
Have NEC Nijmegen or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
NEC Nijmegen have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Emmen in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
NEC Nijmegen
1
Draws
0
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NEC Nijmegen and Emmen?
From 2 meetings on record, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, Emmen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NEC Nijmegen and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Emmen 0-0 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NEC Nijmegen and Emmen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NEC Nijmegen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NEC Nijmegen 52%, Emmen 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (NEC Nijmegen) and 40% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Emmen in 36%; NEC Nijmegen have failed to score in 36% of games; Emmen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NEC Nijmegen home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NEC Nijmegen play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of NEC Nijmegen's recent matches and 40% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NEC Nijmegen vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of NEC Nijmegen's recent games and 40% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NEC Nijmegen and Emmen tend to score early?
NEC Nijmegen have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Emmen in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NEC Nijmegen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Emmen 3-1 at Goffertstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NEC Nijmegen 2.03 xG and Emmen 0.84 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. NEC Nijmegen beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NEC Nijmegen attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Emmen attack 0.69 / defence 1.26, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NEC Nijmegen 63% | Draw 24% | Emmen 13%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NEC Nijmegen 38%, Emmen 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with NEC Nijmegen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.