NAC Breda 3-4 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NEC Nijmegen make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 January 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
NAC Breda's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda at Rat Verlegh Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
NEC Nijmegen have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
NEC Nijmegen arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, NEC Nijmegen in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — NAC Breda lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
NAC Breda — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 56% versus NEC Nijmegen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 50% | NEC Nijmegen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.22 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.693 / defence 0.883 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.244 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.412. NAC Breda's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. NEC Nijmegen have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 NAC Breda games / 51 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 30% | Draw 25% | NEC Nijmegen 45%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | NEC Nijmegen 2.22. NEC Nijmegen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NEC Nijmegen are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 60% | NEC Nijmegen 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 30% | Draw 25% | NEC Nijmegen 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG NAC Breda 1.22 / NEC Nijmegen 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.693 / def 0.883 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.244 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.55
NEC Nijmegen xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen?
NAC Breda 3 - 4 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 30% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (3 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 0 | NEC Nijmegen 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.69) and NEC Nijmegen's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.24x) against NAC Breda's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
30%
3.34
25%
3.99
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.77
1.55
NEC Nijmegen xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
6%
15.77
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.55 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
NAC Breda's recent record stands at 11W 14D 27L from 52 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 20L across 52 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours NEC Nijmegen by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NAC Breda heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, NAC Breda have managed 9W 8D 9L from 26 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 9W 4D 13L across 26 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
NAC Breda are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.85 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 11W 14D 27L in their last 52 games (0.90 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 20W 12D 20L in their last 52 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.35 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: NEC Nijmegen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won 3-0 on 14 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
0
Draws
3
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen?
From 4 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, NEC Nijmegen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when NAC Breda 3-4 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 65%, NEC Nijmegen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 58% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: NEC Nijmegen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of NAC Breda's games and 46% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of NAC Breda's recent games and 58% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NEC Nijmegen edge out NAC Breda 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat NAC Breda 3-4 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.22 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.55 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NEC Nijmegen outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.69 / defence 0.88 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.24 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 30% | Draw 25% | NEC Nijmegen 45%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 50%, NEC Nijmegen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NEC Nijmegen arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.