NAC Breda 2-0 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Heerenveen (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as NAC Breda face Heerenveen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Heerenveen travel to Rat Verlegh Stadion to take on NAC Breda. The game is scheduled for Monday 11 May 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
NAC Breda at Rat Verlegh Stadion this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Heerenveen's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Heerenveen are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for NAC Breda, 2 for Heerenveen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Heerenveen in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 53% versus Heerenveen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 50% | Heerenveen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.25 xG and Heerenveen 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.733 / defence 1.090 | Heerenveen attack 1.072 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.302. NAC Breda's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 NAC Breda games / 66 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 28% | Draw 32% | Heerenveen 40%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.57 | Draw 3.12 | Heerenveen 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 40% | Heerenveen 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 28% | Draw 32% | Heerenveen 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 59% | xG NAC Breda 1.25 / Heerenveen 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.733 / def 1.090 | Heerenveen attack 1.072 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Heerenveen xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Heerenveen kick off?
NAC Breda vs Heerenveen kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 11 May 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
NAC Breda 2 - 0 Heerenveen.
Where is NAC Breda vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Heerenveen part of?
NAC Breda vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 28% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both NAC Breda and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Heerenveen?
Record (3 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 1 | Heerenveen 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and Heerenveen in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Heerenveen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.73) and Heerenveen's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heerenveen's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
28%
3.62
32%
3.09
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.77
1.52
Heerenveen xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
6%
16.55
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.52 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 13W 19D 34L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Heerenveen's form line: 26W 15D 25L from 66 games, 1.41 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Heerenveen are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NAC Breda.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.24 PPG from 33 outings (10W 11D 12L).
On the road, Heerenveen have gone 8W 4D 21L from 33 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heerenveen's season.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.52 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
Heerenveen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 13W 19D 34L in their last 66 games (0.88 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 26W 15D 25L in their last 66 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Heerenveen away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.24 PPG; Heerenveen away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2024, when Heerenveen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Heerenveen specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
1
Draws
2
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Heerenveen?
From 4 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, Heerenveen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when NAC Breda 2-0 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 61%, Heerenveen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 73% (Heerenveen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Heerenveen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of NAC Breda's games and 54% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of NAC Breda's matches and 73% of Heerenveen's.
Do NAC Breda and Heerenveen tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Heerenveen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Heerenveen 2-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.25 xG and Heerenveen 1.52 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Heerenveen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.73 / defence 1.09 against Heerenveen attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 28% | Draw 32% | Heerenveen 40%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 50%, Heerenveen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Heerenveen's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Heerenveen arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with NAC Breda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.