NAC Breda 1-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus Almere City FC in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
NAC Breda's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Almere City FC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. NAC Breda's 1.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Almere City FC's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: NAC Breda 2W, Almere City FC 1W, 1D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 2–0 with NAC Breda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Almere City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 62% versus Almere City FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 60% | Almere City FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.71 xG and Almere City FC 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.914 / defence 1.005 | Almere City FC attack 0.595 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.268. Data: 13 NAC Breda games / 47 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 60% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 16%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Almere City FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 70% | Almere City FC 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Nov 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 60% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG NAC Breda 1.71 / Almere City FC 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.914 / def 1.005 | Almere City FC attack 0.595 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (60%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Almere City FC xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Almere City FC kick off?
NAC Breda vs Almere City FC kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
NAC Breda 1 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is NAC Breda vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Almere City FC part of?
NAC Breda vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 60% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both NAC Breda and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Almere City FC?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Almere City FC in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
NAC Breda's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (0.59x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.25
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.47
0.76
Almere City FC xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
3%
34.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.76 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
NAC Breda come into this having played 47 games, going 20W 11D 16L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 0.85 PPG from 47 outings (8W 16D 23L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
NAC Breda's home form reads 11W 6D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 0.87 points per game from 23 outings (4W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.83 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 20W 11D 16L in their last 47 games (1.51 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 8W 16D 23L in their last 47 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Almere City FC away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.70 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
NAC Breda
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 3, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2025, when Almere City FC 1-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Almere City FC?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 65%, Almere City FC 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (NAC Breda) and 48% (Almere City FC).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Almere City FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 44% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of NAC Breda's recent games and 48% of Almere City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and Almere City FC tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NAC Breda edge out Almere City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Almere City FC 1-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.71 xG and Almere City FC 0.76 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Almere City FC attack 0.59 / defence 1.13, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 60% | Draw 24% | Almere City FC 16%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 60%, Almere City FC 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was vindicated by the result. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.