Heracles 2-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 24 as Heracles welcome PEC Zwolle to Erve Asito. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 February 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heracles have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Erve Asito, Heracles have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Heracles are significantly better at Erve Asito than their overall form suggests.
PEC Zwolle — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Heracles at 0.90 PPG versus PEC Zwolle's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Heracles, 1 for PEC Zwolle and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with PEC Zwolle winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Heracles in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 52% versus PEC Zwolle 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Heracles 44% | PEC Zwolle 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.63 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.976 / defence 0.974 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.806 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.383. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.491 — this is suppressing Heracles's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Heracles games / 23 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 50% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 25%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 4.00. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heracles are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 60% | PEC Zwolle 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Erve Asito • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 50% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Heracles 1.63 / PEC Zwolle 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.976 / def 0.974 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.806 / def 1.491 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Heracles (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.08
PEC Zwolle xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Heracles vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Erve Asito.
What was the final score in Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Heracles 2 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Erve Asito.
What competition is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Heracles vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 50% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Heracles and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
Record (1 meetings): Heracles 0W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are Heracles and PEC Zwolle in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.04
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.72
1.08
PEC Zwolle xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
5%
20.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Heracles and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Heracles and 1.08 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heracles's recent record stands at 6W 5D 12L from 23 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 14L across 23 games — 0.74 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 1.00 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 0.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 6W 3D 2L from 11 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 2W 1D 8L across 11 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 0.78 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 6W 5D 12L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 4W 5D 14L in their last 23 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Heracles's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.91 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when Heracles won 8-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Heracles
0
Draws
6
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
From 10 meetings on record, Heracles have won 4, PEC Zwolle have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-0 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 54%, PEC Zwolle 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Heracles) and 46% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 27% of games; PEC Zwolle in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Heracles's recent matches and 46% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Heracles's recent games and 46% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heracles and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heracles beat PEC Zwolle 2-0 at Erve Asito, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.63 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.08 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PEC Zwolle landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.98 / defence 0.97 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.81 / defence 1.49, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 50% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 25%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 44%, PEC Zwolle 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 1.00 PPG, PEC Zwolle 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heracles win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.