Heracles 2-2 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as Heracles welcome Fortuna Sittard to Asito Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Heracles — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heracles at Asito Stadion this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Heracles) versus 1.20 (Fortuna Sittard). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Heracles, 1 for Fortuna Sittard and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Heracles trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 50% versus Fortuna Sittard 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 67% | Fortuna Sittard 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.61 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 0.948 / defence 1.160 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.755 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.274. Data: 48 Heracles games / 48 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 49% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 26%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Sittard 3.85. Heracles hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Heracles 50% | Fortuna Sittard 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Asito Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 49% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Heracles 1.61 / Fortuna Sittard 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 0.948 / def 1.160 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.755 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Heracles (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Fortuna Sittard xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Asito Stadion.
What was the final score in Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Heracles 2 - 2 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadion.
What competition is Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 49% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Heracles and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (4 meetings): Heracles 2W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Sittard 1W.
What form are Heracles and Fortuna Sittard in?
Heracles (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Heracles's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.04
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Heracles xG
Total xG
2.73
1.12
Fortuna Sittard xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
5%
19.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Heracles and 1.12 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Heracles have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 12W 10D 26L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard's form line: 14W 14D 20L from 48 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 0.96 PPG, Fortuna Sittard on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Heracles have posted 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 3W 8D 13L from 24 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortuna Sittard's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heracles are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.08 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 12W 10D 26L in their last 48 games (0.96 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 14W 14D 20L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Heracles's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.29 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Heracles or Fortuna Sittard been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heracles have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Fortuna Sittard in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Nov 2023, when Fortuna Sittard won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Heracles
3
Draws
2
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and Fortuna Sittard?
From 8 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Heracles 2-1 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and Fortuna Sittard?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 58%, Fortuna Sittard 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Heracles) and 50% (Fortuna Sittard). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heracles have failed to score in 29% of games; Fortuna Sittard in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play Fortuna Sittard?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Heracles's recent matches and 33% of Fortuna Sittard's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heracles vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Heracles's matches and 50% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Heracles and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Heracles and Fortuna Sittard share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Asito Stadion, Regular Season - 15, as Heracles and Fortuna Sittard drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.61 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.12 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 0.95 / defence 1.16 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 49% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 26%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 67%, Fortuna Sittard 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 0.96 PPG, Fortuna Sittard 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.