Heerenveen 3-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heerenveen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Heerenveen vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as Heerenveen welcome Waalwijk to Abe Lenstra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heerenveen have gone 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Heerenveen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Waalwijk — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Heerenveen 3.00 PPG, Waalwijk 3.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Heerenveen's 0% and Waalwijk's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.17 xG and Waalwijk 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 0.977 / defence 1.150 | Waalwijk attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.038 / away 1.094. Data: 1 Heerenveen games / 1 Waalwijk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 38% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 33%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Waalwijk 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heerenveen at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heerenveen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 38% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Heerenveen 1.17 / Waalwijk 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 0.977 / def 1.150 | Waalwijk attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.038 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Waalwijk xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs Waalwijk kick off?
Heerenveen vs Waalwijk kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Heerenveen 3 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is Heerenveen vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs Waalwijk part of?
Heerenveen vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 38% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Heerenveen and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Heerenveen and Waalwijk in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Heerenveen's attack at 0.98x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.47
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.23
1.07
Waalwijk xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.07 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Heerenveen have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Heerenveen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heerenveen on 3.00 PPG, Waalwijk on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 0%.
Defensively: Heerenveen have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Waalwijk in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Heerenveen or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Heerenveen have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Waalwijk won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heerenveen's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Heerenveen
4
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 2, Waalwijk have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Waalwijk 3-1 Heerenveen.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Heerenveen's recent matches and 0% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heerenveen vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Heerenveen's recent games and 0% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Heerenveen and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out Waalwijk 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Waalwijk 3-2 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.17 xG and Waalwijk 1.07 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Heerenveen beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Waalwijk outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Waalwijk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 38% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 33%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 0%, Waalwijk 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heerenveen 3.00 PPG, Waalwijk 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. Heerenveen scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.