Heerenveen 0-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heerenveen at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees PEC Zwolle travel to Abe Lenstra Stadion to take on Heerenveen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heerenveen stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Heerenveen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heerenveen at Abe Lenstra Stadion this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Heerenveen are significantly better at Abe Lenstra Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, PEC Zwolle have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Heerenveen have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Heerenveen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PEC Zwolle in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Heerenveen have won 3, PEC Zwolle 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2026, ended 4–2 with Heerenveen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Heerenveen in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
PEC Zwolle in-play tendencies (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 94% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Heerenveen 64% and PEC Zwolle 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Heerenveen 72% | PEC Zwolle 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 2.14 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 1.002 / defence 0.760 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.919 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.601. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Heerenveen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Heerenveen's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Heerenveen games / 36 PEC Zwolle games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 60% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 18%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | PEC Zwolle 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Heerenveen (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Heerenveen are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Heerenveen 60% | PEC Zwolle 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 60% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Heerenveen 2.14 / PEC Zwolle 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 1.002 / def 0.760 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.919 / def 1.333 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.601 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
1.12
PEC Zwolle xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Heerenveen 0 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 60% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle?
Record (8 meetings): Heerenveen 3W | Draws 3 | PEC Zwolle 2W.
What form are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Heerenveen's attack rating (1.00) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Heerenveen's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.50
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
3.26
1.12
PEC Zwolle xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
12%
8.47
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
2%
46.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Heerenveen and 1.12 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Heerenveen's recent record stands at 15W 9D 12L from 36 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Heerenveen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 9W 10D 17L across 36 games — 1.03 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Heerenveen by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PEC Zwolle heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Heerenveen have managed 9W 5D 3L from 17 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 0W 6D 11L across 17 trips, a 0.35 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PEC Zwolle's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heerenveen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Heerenveen are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.25 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heerenveen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; PEC Zwolle in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Early Season
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 15W 9D 12L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 9W 10D 17L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Heerenveen's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.88 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Heerenveen's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Heerenveen
3
Draws
3
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle?
From 9 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 3, PEC Zwolle have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Heerenveen 0-2 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Heerenveen at 71%, PEC Zwolle at 94%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Heerenveen and 82% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Heerenveen's games and 94% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heerenveen vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Heerenveen's matches and 82% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Heerenveen and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Heerenveen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Heerenveen 0-2 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 2.14 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.12 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Heerenveen fell 2.1 short of their projected output. PEC Zwolle outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 1.00 / defence 0.76 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.92 / defence 1.33, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 60% | Draw 22% | PEC Zwolle 18%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a PEC Zwolle win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 72%, PEC Zwolle 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Heerenveen arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.