Heerenveen 2-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heerenveen at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heerenveen vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Abe Lenstra Stadion plays host to Heerenveen versus Cambuur in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 13 November 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Heerenveen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Abe Lenstra Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambuur have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Heerenveen. A 1.10 PPG lead over Cambuur (1.50 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Heerenveen lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Heerenveen half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heerenveen 51% versus Cambuur 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heerenveen 49% | Cambuur 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heerenveen 1.28 xG and Cambuur 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heerenveen attack 0.781 / defence 0.865 | Cambuur attack 0.804 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.334. Heerenveen's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Heerenveen games / 47 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heerenveen 45% | Draw 28% | Cambuur 27%. Fair-value odds: Heerenveen 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Cambuur 3.70. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Heerenveen as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heerenveen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Heerenveen 70% | Cambuur 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heerenveen vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Abe Lenstra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heerenveen 45% | Draw 28% | Cambuur 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Heerenveen 1.28 / Cambuur 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Heerenveen attack 0.781 / def 0.865 | Cambuur attack 0.804 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Heerenveen xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Cambuur xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heerenveen vs Cambuur kick off?
Heerenveen vs Cambuur kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What was the final score in Heerenveen vs Cambuur?
Heerenveen 2 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Heerenveen vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
What competition is Heerenveen vs Cambuur part of?
Heerenveen vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heerenveen vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Heerenveen a 45% chance of winning, Cambuur a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Heerenveen and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Heerenveen vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Cambuur?
Record (2 meetings): Heerenveen 1W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Heerenveen and Cambuur in?
Heerenveen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Cambuur (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Heerenveen's attack at 0.78x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.80x) against Heerenveen's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
45%
2.25
28%
3.51
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Heerenveen xG
Total xG
2.21
0.93
Cambuur xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heerenveen vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Heerenveen and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Heerenveen and 0.93 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Heerenveen vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Heerenveen's recent record stands at 15W 13D 19L from 47 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 26L across 47 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Heerenveen against 1.00 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Heerenveen have managed 8W 5D 10L from 23 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 7W 5D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Heerenveen are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.30 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heerenveen
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heerenveen and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Heerenveen have gone 15W 13D 19L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 13W 8D 26L in their last 47 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heerenveen at home or Cambuur away?
Heerenveen's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heerenveen at home: 1.26 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Heerenveen go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Heerenveen have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Heerenveen
1
Draws
0
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heerenveen and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, Heerenveen have won 3, Cambuur have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heerenveen and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Cambuur 1-2 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between Heerenveen and Cambuur?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heerenveen 56%, Cambuur 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Heerenveen) and 61% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen have failed to score in 35% of games; Cambuur in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heerenveen home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heerenveen play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Heerenveen's recent matches and 48% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Heerenveen vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Heerenveen's matches and 61% of Cambuur's.
Do Heerenveen and Cambuur tend to score early?
Heerenveen have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Heerenveen edge out Cambuur 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat Cambuur 2-1 at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heerenveen 1.28 xG and Cambuur 0.93 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heerenveen attack 0.78 / defence 0.86 against Cambuur attack 0.80 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heerenveen 45% | Draw 28% | Cambuur 27%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heerenveen 49%, Cambuur 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heerenveen's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heerenveen 1.23 PPG, Cambuur 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.