Groningen 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam meet at Euroborg in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Groningen (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Groningen's home record at Euroborg: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sparta Rotterdam's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Groningen, 0 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games).
Sparta Rotterdam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 64% versus Sparta Rotterdam 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 45% | Sparta Rotterdam 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.20 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.832 / defence 1.220 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.532 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.261. Sparta Rotterdam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Groningen games / 31 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 45% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 25%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Sparta Rotterdam 4.00. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Groningen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 60% | Sparta Rotterdam 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 45% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Groningen 1.20 / Sparta Rotterdam 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.832 / def 1.220 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.532 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Groningen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Sparta Rotterdam xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Groningen 1 - 2 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 45% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (1 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Rotterdam 0W.
What form are Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Groningen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.83) and Sparta Rotterdam's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (0.53x) against Groningen's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.34
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.02
0.82
Sparta Rotterdam xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
8%
13.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.9 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Groningen and 0.82 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Groningen's recent record stands at 9W 9D 13L from 31 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Sparta Rotterdam, meanwhile, have gone 5W 11D 15L across 31 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Groningen against 0.84 for Sparta Rotterdam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 4W 6D 5L from 15 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record stands at 2W 4D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Groningen are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 0.74 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Current Season
Sparta Rotterdam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 9W 9D 13L in their last 31 games (1.16 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 5W 11D 15L in their last 31 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Groningen's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.20 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Rotterdam have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 0-5 on 28 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Groningen
1
Draws
6
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, Sparta Rotterdam have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 53%, Sparta Rotterdam 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Groningen and 47% for Sparta Rotterdam.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 33% of games; Sparta Rotterdam in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Groningen's recent matches and 33% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Groningen's recent games and 47% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sparta Rotterdam defy the odds to beat Groningen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Groningen 1-2 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.20 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.82 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.53 / defence 1.27, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 45% | Draw 30% | Sparta Rotterdam 25%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Sparta Rotterdam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 45%, Sparta Rotterdam 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.16 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.