Groningen 0-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 18 as Groningen welcome NAC Breda to Euroborg. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 January 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen at Euroborg this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Groningen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Groningen, 1 for NAC Breda and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 2–1 with Groningen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
NAC Breda trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 51% versus NAC Breda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 49% | NAC Breda 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.89 xG and NAC Breda 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.019 / defence 0.875 | NAC Breda attack 0.778 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.403. Data: 51 Groningen games / 51 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 59% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 19%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | NAC Breda 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Groningen 50% | NAC Breda 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 59% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Groningen 1.89 / NAC Breda 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.019 / def 0.875 | NAC Breda attack 0.778 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Groningen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.95
NAC Breda xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs NAC Breda kick off?
Groningen vs NAC Breda kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Groningen 0 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is Groningen vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs NAC Breda part of?
Groningen vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 59% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Groningen and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and NAC Breda?
Record (5 meetings): Groningen 2W | Draws 2 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are Groningen and NAC Breda in?
Groningen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. NAC Breda (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Groningen's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.52
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.84
0.95
NAC Breda xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
3%
35.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Groningen and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Groningen and 0.95 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Groningen's recent record stands at 18W 12D 21L from 51 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 27L across 51 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.29 PPG, NAC Breda on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 12W 8D 5L from 25 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Groningen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 2W 5D 18L across 25 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 0.98 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 games (1.29 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 11W 13D 27L in their last 51 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or NAC Breda away?
Groningen's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.76 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Groningen and NAC Breda runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Aug 2024, when Groningen won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Groningen
3
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, NAC Breda have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Groningen 0-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and NAC Breda?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 44%, NAC Breda 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Groningen) and 56% (NAC Breda).
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 28% of games; NAC Breda in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Groningen's recent matches and 48% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Groningen's recent games and 56% of NAC Breda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Groningen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen and NAC Breda finished level at 0-0 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.89 xG and NAC Breda 0.95 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Groningen fell 1.9 short of their projected output. NAC Breda landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against NAC Breda attack 0.78 / defence 1.11, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 59% | Draw 22% | NAC Breda 19%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 49%, NAC Breda 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NAC Breda's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.29 PPG, NAC Breda 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.