Groningen 4-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 1 as Groningen welcome NAC Breda to Euroborg. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Groningen haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Groningen at Euroborg this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Euroborg.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NAC Breda have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. NAC Breda haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Groningen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Groningen, 1 for NAC Breda and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
NAC Breda trading profile (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 45% versus NAC Breda 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 55% | NAC Breda 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.77 xG and NAC Breda 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.495. Data: 0 Groningen games / 0 NAC Breda games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Groningen 44% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 31%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | NAC Breda 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 40% | NAC Breda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 9 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 44% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Groningen 1.77 / NAC Breda 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | NAC Breda attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.495 • Poisson stance: Groningen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.46
NAC Breda xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs NAC Breda kick off?
Groningen vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 August 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Groningen 4 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Groningen vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs NAC Breda part of?
Groningen vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 44% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Groningen and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and NAC Breda?
Record (2 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are Groningen and NAC Breda in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Groningen (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Groningen's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.77. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.88
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.23
1.46
NAC Breda xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
10%
9.88
5%
19.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Groningen and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Groningen and 1.46 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Groningen's recent record stands at 22W 9D 7L from 38 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. Groningen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 10L across 38 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five. NAC Breda haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.97 PPG, NAC Breda on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 11W 5D 2L from 18 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 8W 5D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Groningen are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.89 scored and 1.37 conceded. NAC Breda's attacking output running into Groningen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 71%.
Defensively: Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Pre-Season
NAC Breda
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 22W 9D 7L in their last 38 games (1.97 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 17W 11D 10L in their last 38 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or NAC Breda away?
Groningen's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 2.11 PPG; NAC Breda away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Groningen or NAC Breda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, NAC Breda in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Groningen and NAC Breda runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Aug 2024, when Groningen won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Groningen
3
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Groningen have won 2, NAC Breda have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Groningen 0-0 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and NAC Breda?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 39%, NAC Breda 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Groningen and 61% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play NAC Breda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Groningen's recent matches and 67% of NAC Breda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Groningen's matches and 61% of NAC Breda's.
Do Groningen and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Groningen run riot with a 4-1 hammering of NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat NAC Breda 4-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.77 xG and NAC Breda 1.46 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 44% | Draw 26% | NAC Breda 31%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 55%, NAC Breda 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
NAC Breda's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.97 PPG, NAC Breda 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.