Fortuna Sittard 3-2 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PEC Zwolle make the trip to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to face Fortuna Sittard in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
Fortuna Sittard (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 2W 3D 5L at Fortuna Sittard Stadion — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Fortuna Sittard, 1.10 for PEC Zwolle — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Sittard register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, PEC Zwolle in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, PEC Zwolle have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Fortuna Sittard's 2, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with PEC Zwolle winning.
It is worth noting that PEC Zwolle have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Sittard 61% and PEC Zwolle 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 59% | PEC Zwolle 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 2.24 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.868 / defence 1.280 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.904 / defence 1.512. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.294. PEC Zwolle bring a strong defensive rating of 1.512 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Fortuna Sittard games / 66 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 52% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 23%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 4.35. Fortuna Sittard hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.24 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Sittard at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.74 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 100% | PEC Zwolle 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 52% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Fortuna Sittard 2.24 / PEC Zwolle 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.868 / def 1.280 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.904 / def 1.512 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.50
PEC Zwolle xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Fortuna Sittard 3 - 2 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 52% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle?
Record (7 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 2W | Draws 0 | PEC Zwolle 5W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.87x the league average against PEC Zwolle's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 2.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (0.90x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.06
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
3.74
1.50
PEC Zwolle xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.52
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
11%
9.37
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
2%
40.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.50 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Sittard come into this having played 66 games, going 21W 14D 31L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.18 PPG from 66 outings (19W 21D 26L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 1.18 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fortuna Sittard's home form reads 14W 5D 14L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 0.76 points per game from 33 outings (4W 13D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PEC Zwolle's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Sittard come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.29 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; PEC Zwolle in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 21W 14D 31L in their last 66 games (1.17 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 19W 21D 26L in their last 66 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.42 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PEC Zwolle won 1-4 on 26 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Fortuna Sittard
0
Draws
5
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, PEC Zwolle have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 3-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 52%, PEC Zwolle 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Fortuna Sittard and 61% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 73% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 61% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Sittard edge out PEC Zwolle 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat PEC Zwolle 3-2 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 2.24 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.50 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.87 / defence 1.28 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.90 / defence 1.51, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 52% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 23%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 59%, PEC Zwolle 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.17 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Sittard win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.