Fortuna Sittard 2-0 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees FC Volendam travel to Fortuna Sittard Stadion to take on Fortuna Sittard. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 October 2022, 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fortuna Sittard have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Fortuna Sittard have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Fortuna Sittard) versus 0.90 (FC Volendam). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Fortuna Sittard in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Sittard 58% and FC Volendam 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Fortuna Sittard 63% | FC Volendam 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 2.41 xG and FC Volendam 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.910 / defence 1.351 | FC Volendam attack 0.740 / defence 1.562. League average goals — home 1.692 / away 1.327. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.562 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Fortuna Sittard games / 7 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 61% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 20%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 1.64 | Draw 5.26 | FC Volendam 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Sittard (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Sittard are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.73 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 50% | FC Volendam 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 61% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 67% | xG Fortuna Sittard 2.41 / FC Volendam 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.910 / def 1.351 | FC Volendam attack 0.740 / def 1.562 | league avg home 1.692 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC Volendam xG
67%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Fortuna Sittard 2 - 0 FC Volendam.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 61% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 20% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 0.91x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.56x — combine the two and it projects 2.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
61%
1.63
19%
5.32
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
3.73
1.33
FC Volendam xG
1.63
61%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
9%
11.09
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
2%
55.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.33 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 11W 6D 24L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Volendam's form line: 21W 12D 8L from 41 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (7W 2D 12L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 8W 9D 4L from 21 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.95 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 73%.
Last 41 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 11W 6D 24L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 21W 12D 8L in their last 41 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.10 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fortuna Sittard have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Fortuna Sittard
0
Draws
1
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 5, FC Volendam have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when FC Volendam 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 57%, FC Volendam 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Fortuna Sittard and 57% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 67% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 57% of FC Volendam's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat FC Volendam 2-0 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 2.41 xG and FC Volendam 1.33 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Volendam landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.91 / defence 1.35 against FC Volendam attack 0.74 / defence 1.56, drawn from 41/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 61% | Draw 19% | FC Volendam 20%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 63%, FC Volendam 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Volendam's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.