Feyenoord 5-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face Waalwijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Feijenoord plays host to Feyenoord versus Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 9 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Feyenoord have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Feyenoord. A 0.90 PPG lead over Waalwijk (2.60 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Feyenoord lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Feyenoord winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 60% and Waalwijk 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 62% | Waalwijk 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.68 xG and Waalwijk 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.095 / defence 0.793 | Waalwijk attack 0.950 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.264. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Feyenoord games / 60 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 53% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 19%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Waalwijk 5.26. Feyenoord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Feyenoord if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 60% | Waalwijk 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 53% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Feyenoord 1.68 / Waalwijk 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.095 / def 0.793 | Waalwijk attack 0.950 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Waalwijk xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Waalwijk kick off?
Feyenoord vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Feyenoord 5 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Feyenoord vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Waalwijk part of?
Feyenoord vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 53% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Feyenoord and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Waalwijk?
Record (3 meetings): Feyenoord 2W | Draws 1 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Waalwijk in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.09x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.95x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.57
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.63
0.95
Waalwijk xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
19%
5.36
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
4%
27.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.95 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 2.20 PPG on a 40W 12D 8L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk's form line: 18W 19D 23L from 60 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.98 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 2.21 PPG from 29 outings (19W 7D 3L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 5W 13D 11L from 29 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.35 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 63%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 40W 12D 8L in their last 60 games (2.20 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 18W 19D 23L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Waalwijk away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.21 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-1 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
1
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, Waalwijk have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Feyenoord 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Waalwijk?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 52%, Waalwijk 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Feyenoord) and 55% (Waalwijk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Waalwijk in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Feyenoord's games and 69% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Feyenoord's matches and 55% of Waalwijk's.
Do Feyenoord and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Waalwijk 5-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.68 xG and Waalwijk 0.95 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.09 / defence 0.79 against Waalwijk attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 53% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 19%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 62%, Waalwijk 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.