Feyenoord 2-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Feijenoord plays host to Feyenoord versus Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 16 October 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Feyenoord have collected 2.14 PPG across 7 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 0D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.86 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 3W 0D 0L from 3 Eredivisie appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.14 — Feyenoord are significantly better at Stadion Feijenoord than their overall form suggests.
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 3D 4L from 8 games (0.75 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Feyenoord. A 1.39 PPG lead over Waalwijk (2.14 vs 0.75) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Waalwijk in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 71%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Feyenoord 57% and Waalwijk 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 86% | Waalwijk 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.26 xG and Waalwijk 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.397 / defence 1.195 | Waalwijk attack 0.817 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.444. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Feyenoord games / 8 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 57% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 23%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.75 | Draw 5.00 | Waalwijk 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 67% | Waalwijk 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 57% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG Feyenoord 2.26 / Waalwijk 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.397 / def 1.195 | Waalwijk attack 0.817 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Waalwijk xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Waalwijk kick off?
Feyenoord vs Waalwijk kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Feyenoord 2 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is Feyenoord vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Waalwijk part of?
Feyenoord vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 57% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 23% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Feyenoord and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Feyenoord and Waalwijk in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 5W-0D-2L in 7 | 2.14 PPG | GF 2.86 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.62 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.40x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.82x) against Feyenoord's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
57%
1.76
20%
5.02
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.67
1.41
Waalwijk xG
1.76
57%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
10%
9.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.22
2%
41.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.41 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 2.14 PPG on a 5W 0D 2L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk's form line: 0W 3D 4L from 7 games, 0.43 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.14 PPG overall — Feyenoord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.29 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 86%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 5W 0D 2L in their last 7 games (2.14 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 0W 3D 4L in their last 7 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Waalwijk away?
Feyenoord's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 3.00 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-1 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
1
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, Waalwijk have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Feyenoord 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Waalwijk?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Feyenoord, 67% for Waalwijk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Feyenoord and 67% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Waalwijk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Feyenoord's games and 67% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Feyenoord's matches and 67% of Waalwijk's.
Do Feyenoord and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord and Waalwijk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord and Waalwijk finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 9, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.26 xG and Waalwijk 1.41 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.40 / defence 1.20 against Waalwijk attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 57% | Draw 20% | Waalwijk 23%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 86%, Waalwijk 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.43. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.