Feyenoord 0-0 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (67%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Feyenoord face NEC Nijmegen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NEC Nijmegen make the trip to Stadion Feijenoord to face Feyenoord in Eredivisie (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Feyenoord (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feyenoord at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Feyenoord are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
NEC Nijmegen have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Feyenoord's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Feyenoord, who have won 3 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against NEC Nijmegen — NEC Nijmegen have 0 wins, with 3 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Feyenoord 1–1 NEC Nijmegen — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Feyenoord and goals — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Feyenoord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
NEC Nijmegen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 58% versus NEC Nijmegen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 67% | NEC Nijmegen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.27 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.261 / defence 0.917 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.793 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.308. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack rating of 1.261 — their 2.27 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. NEC Nijmegen's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Feyenoord's last 57 games and NEC Nijmegen's last 57.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 67% | Draw 19% | NEC Nijmegen 14%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.49 | Draw 5.36 | NEC Nijmegen 6.95. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (67%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Feyenoord's last 10 home games and NEC Nijmegen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Feyenoord 60% (last 10 home games) | NEC Nijmegen 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 67% | Draw 19% | NEC Nijmegen 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Feyenoord 2.27 / NEC Nijmegen 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.261 / def 0.917 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.793 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.95
NEC Nijmegen xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen FAQs
What time does Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Feyenoord 0 - 0 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 67% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.26x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (0.79x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Feyenoord's last 57 games and NEC Nijmegen's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.36
14%
6.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.22
0.95
NEC Nijmegen xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.36
19%
Draw
6.95
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
10%
9.63
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
1%
66.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.95 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Feyenoord come into this having played 57 games, going 38W 13D 6L for 2.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, NEC Nijmegen sit at 1.37 PPG from 57 outings (21W 15D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Feyenoord's home form reads 20W 5D 3L across their last 28 home games, a 2.32 PPG return.
Away from home, NEC Nijmegen have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 28 away games (9W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.46 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.75 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
Feyenoord (Home) vs NEC Nijmegen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feyenoord
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen Form FAQs
What form are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 38W 13D 6L in their last 57 games (2.23 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 21W 15D 21L in their last 57 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.32 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won NEC Nijmegen 1-4 Feyenoord on 23 Jan 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Feyenoord
5
Draws
1
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Feyenoord have won 4, NEC Nijmegen have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: NEC Nijmegen 1-3 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 50%, NEC Nijmegen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Feyenoord and 61% for NEC Nijmegen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; NEC Nijmegen in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 50% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Feyenoord's matches and 61% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 71% of NEC Nijmegen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Feyenoord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord and NEC Nijmegen finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.27 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.95 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 2.3 short of their projected output. NEC Nijmegen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.26 / defence 0.92 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 67% | Draw 19% | NEC Nijmegen 14%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 67%, NEC Nijmegen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.64 scoring average — below par going forward. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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