Feyenoord 2-1 Heracles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Heracles encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feyenoord host Heracles at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 1 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Feijenoord, Feyenoord have gone 5W 1D 0L this season (6 games, 2.67 PPG). They are averaging 2.83 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Feijenoord.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Heracles have posted 0W 1D 5L from 6 away outings — 0.17 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.17 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Feyenoord have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Heracles in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 46% versus Heracles 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 69% | Heracles 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.13 xG and Heracles 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.421 / defence 1.046 | Heracles attack 0.610 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.310. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.421 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Heracles bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Feyenoord games / 13 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 67% | Draw 19% | Heracles 14%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Heracles 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 50% | Heracles 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Heracles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 67% | Draw 19% | Heracles 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 50% | xG Feyenoord 2.13 / Heracles 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.421 / def 1.046 | Heracles attack 0.610 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Heracles xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Heracles kick off?
Feyenoord vs Heracles kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 1 December 2021 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Heracles?
Feyenoord 2 - 1 Heracles.
Where is Feyenoord vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Heracles part of?
Feyenoord vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 67% chance of winning, Heracles a 14% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Feyenoord and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Heracles?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Feyenoord and Heracles in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Heracles (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Heracles's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
67%
1.49
19%
5.17
14%
7.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.96
0.83
Heracles xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
7.37
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
12%
8.39
Win to Nil
29%
3.43
2%
61.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.83 for Heracles, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 2.23 PPG on a 9W 2D 2L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heracles's form line: 4W 2D 7L from 13 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Heracles.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 2.67 PPG from 6 outings (5W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.23 PPG overall — Feyenoord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Heracles have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away games — 0.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Heracles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.08 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Heracles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Heracles in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 9W 2D 2L in their last 13 games (2.23 PPG), while Heracles have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Heracles away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.67 PPG; Heracles away: 0.17 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Heracles been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Heracles in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Feyenoord and Heracles runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Feyenoord go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2025, when Feyenoord won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Heracles?
From 8 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 8, Heracles have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Feyenoord 4-2 Heracles.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Heracles?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 50%, Heracles 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Feyenoord) and 33% (Heracles).
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Heracles in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 50% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Feyenoord's recent games and 33% of Heracles's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feyenoord and Heracles tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Heracles in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Heracles 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Heracles 2-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.13 xG and Heracles 0.83 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.42 / defence 1.05 against Heracles attack 0.61 / defence 1.23, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 67% | Draw 19% | Heracles 14%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 67%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 69%, Heracles 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Heracles's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.