Feyenoord 4-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feyenoord at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feyenoord vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feyenoord host Emmen at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Feijenoord this season.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Emmen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Feyenoord at 2.30 PPG versus Emmen's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Emmen in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 54% versus Emmen 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 65% | Emmen 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.90 xG and Emmen 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 0.953 / defence 0.791 | Emmen attack 0.826 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.462. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Feyenoord's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Feyenoord games / 3 Emmen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 60% | Draw 22% | Emmen 18%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Emmen 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Feyenoord 50% | Emmen 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 60% | Draw 22% | Emmen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Feyenoord 1.90 / Emmen 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 0.953 / def 0.791 | Emmen attack 0.826 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Emmen xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Emmen kick off?
Feyenoord vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Emmen?
Feyenoord 4 - 0 Emmen.
Where is Feyenoord vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Emmen part of?
Feyenoord vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 60% chance of winning, Emmen a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Feyenoord and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Emmen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Feyenoord and Emmen in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Emmen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Feyenoord's attack rating (0.95) and Emmen's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.55
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.86
0.96
Emmen xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
15%
6.71
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
3%
36.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.96 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feyenoord come into this having played 37 games, going 24W 6D 7L for 2.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 2.24 PPG from 37 outings (26W 5D 6L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Feyenoord on 2.11 PPG, Emmen on 2.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Feyenoord's home form reads 11W 4D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 1.89 points per game from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Feyenoord are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.78 scored and 0.70 conceded. Feyenoord's scoring rate against Emmen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Emmen in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Early Season
Emmen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Emmen in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 24W 6D 7L in their last 37 games (2.11 PPG), while Emmen have gone 26W 5D 6L in their last 37 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Emmen away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.06 PPG; Emmen away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Emmen in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Emmen?
From 2 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 2, Emmen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Emmen 1-3 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Emmen?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Emmen see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 50%, Emmen 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Feyenoord) and 33% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Emmen in 44%; Emmen in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 39% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Feyenoord's recent games and 33% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feyenoord and Emmen tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Emmen in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Emmen 4-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.90 xG and Emmen 0.96 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Emmen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 0.95 / defence 0.79 against Emmen attack 0.83 / defence 1.34, drawn from 37/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 60% | Draw 22% | Emmen 18%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 65%, Emmen 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Emmen's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feyenoord 2.11 PPG, Emmen 2.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feyenoord win broke the near-deadlock. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.