FC Volendam 1-2 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Vitesse meet at Kras Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
FC Volendam at Kras Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Vitesse haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Vitesse have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for FC Volendam, 1.70 for Vitesse — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for FC Volendam, 0 for Vitesse and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 2–0 with FC Volendam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Vitesse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 62% versus Vitesse 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 68% | Vitesse 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.72 xG and Vitesse 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.059 / defence 1.040 | Vitesse attack 0.973 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.319. Data: 34 FC Volendam games / 34 Vitesse games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 45% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Vitesse 3.57. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | Vitesse 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 45% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Volendam 1.72 / Vitesse 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.059 / def 1.040 | Vitesse attack 0.973 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Vitesse xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Vitesse kick off?
FC Volendam vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 August 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
FC Volendam 1 - 2 Vitesse.
Where is FC Volendam vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Vitesse part of?
FC Volendam vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 45% chance of winning, Vitesse a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Volendam and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Vitesse?
Record (2 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 1 | Vitesse 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Vitesse in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.06x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.97x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.78
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.06
1.33
Vitesse xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
5%
19.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.33 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Volendam come into this having played 34 games, going 10W 6D 18L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. FC Volendam haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 1.18 PPG from 34 outings (10W 10D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. Vitesse haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.18 for Vitesse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Volendam's home form reads 9W 1D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 1.12 points per game from 17 outings (5W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.32 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Pre-Season
Vitesse
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Vitesse in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 10W 6D 18L in their last 34 games (1.06 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Vitesse away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.65 PPG; Vitesse away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-0 on 17 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
2
Draws
1
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Vitesse?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Vitesse have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2025, when FC Volendam 4-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Vitesse?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 71%, Vitesse 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for FC Volendam and 53% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Volendam's games and 47% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Volendam's matches and 53% of Vitesse's.
Do FC Volendam and Vitesse tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat FC Volendam 1-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.72 xG and Vitesse 1.33 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Vitesse attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 45% | Draw 26% | Vitesse 28%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Vitesse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, Vitesse 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.06 PPG, Vitesse 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.