FC Volendam 1-0 Twente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Twente at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Twente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 4 as FC Volendam welcome Twente to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Twente stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Twente have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Twente's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Twente's 2.30 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of FC Volendam's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 89% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Twente in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 75% and Twente 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 72% | Twente 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.02 xG and Twente 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.815 / defence 1.418 | Twente attack 0.995 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.450. Data: 2 FC Volendam games / 36 Twente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 18% | Draw 21% | Twente 61%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 5.56 | Draw 4.76 | Twente 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Twente (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Twente at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 90% | Twente 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Twente | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 18% | Draw 21% | Twente 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Volendam 1.02 / Twente 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.815 / def 1.418 | Twente attack 0.995 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Twente (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Twente xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Twente kick off?
FC Volendam vs Twente kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Twente?
FC Volendam 1 - 0 Twente.
Where is FC Volendam vs Twente being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Twente part of?
FC Volendam vs Twente is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Twente?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 18% chance of winning, Twente a 61% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Twente the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Twente?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Volendam and Twente will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Twente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Twente?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Volendam and Twente in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Twente (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.81x the league average against Twente's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Twente's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 2/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Twente Win
18%
5.49
21%
4.80
61%
1.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.07
2.04
Twente xG
5.49
18%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
1.64
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
13%
7.73
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
2%
42.44
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Twente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Twente expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for FC Volendam and 2.04 for Twente, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Twente?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 20W 11D 5L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Twente's form line: 22W 8D 6L from 36 games, 2.06 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Twente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 1.97 PPG, Twente on 2.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 2.17 PPG from 18 outings (12W 3D 3L).
On the road, Twente have gone 11W 3D 4L from 18 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Twente are on 1.64 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Twente in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
Twente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Twente in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 20W 11D 5L in their last 36 games (1.97 PPG), while Twente have gone 22W 8D 6L in their last 36 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Twente away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.17 PPG; Twente away: 2.00 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Twente been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Twente in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Twente won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Twente specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
1
Draws
4
Twente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Twente?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 1, Twente have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Twente last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Twente 2-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Twente?
Twente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Twente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 83%, Twente at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 89% for FC Volendam and 50% for Twente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Twente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Twente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of FC Volendam's games and 61% of Twente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Twente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 89% of FC Volendam's matches and 50% of Twente's.
Do FC Volendam and Twente tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Twente in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Volendam defy the odds to beat Twente 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Twente 1-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.02 xG and Twente 2.04 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Twente landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.81 / defence 1.42 against Twente attack 0.99 / defence 0.83, drawn from 2/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 18% | Draw 21% | Twente 61%, with Twente to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a FC Volendam win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 72%, Twente 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Twente's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.97 PPG, Twente 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Twente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.