FC Volendam 2-3 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees PSV Eindhoven travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PSV Eindhoven — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PSV Eindhoven's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. PSV Eindhoven are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Volendam, 1 for PSV Eindhoven and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 8.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2022, ended 1–7 with PSV Eindhoven winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
PSV Eindhoven in-play tendencies (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 68% and PSV Eindhoven 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 68% | PSV Eindhoven 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.58 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.996 / defence 1.150 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.271 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.275. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 FC Volendam games / 62 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 32% | Draw 25% | PSV Eindhoven 43%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | PSV Eindhoven 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PSV Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | PSV Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 32% | Draw 25% | PSV Eindhoven 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG FC Volendam 1.58 / PSV Eindhoven 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.996 / def 1.150 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.271 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.86
PSV Eindhoven xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
FC Volendam 2 - 3 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 32% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (1 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 0 | PSV Eindhoven 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Volendam's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against PSV Eindhoven's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
32%
3.17
25%
3.95
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.45
1.86
PSV Eindhoven xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
5%
20.46
9%
11.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.86 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 27W 16D 19L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 44W 8D 10L from 62 games, 2.26 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Volendam.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.93 PPG from 30 outings (18W 4D 8L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 17W 7D 6L from 30 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.60 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 63%.
Last 62 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Current Season
PSV Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 27W 16D 19L in their last 62 games (1.56 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 44W 8D 10L in their last 62 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.93 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 1.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2022, when PSV Eindhoven won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
0
Draws
5
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 1, PSV Eindhoven have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when FC Volendam 2-1 PSV Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Volendam at 77%, PSV Eindhoven at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for FC Volendam and 77% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of FC Volendam's games and 70% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of FC Volendam's matches and 77% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do FC Volendam and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PSV Eindhoven edge out FC Volendam 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat FC Volendam 2-3 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.58 xG and PSV Eindhoven 1.86 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 1.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.00 / defence 1.15 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.27 / defence 0.99, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 32% | Draw 25% | PSV Eindhoven 43%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, PSV Eindhoven 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.56. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.