FC Volendam 2-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees NAC Breda travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025, 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Volendam at 0.90 PPG versus NAC Breda's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, NAC Breda in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC Volendam have won 1, NAC Breda 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
FC Volendam in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 67% and NAC Breda 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 76% | NAC Breda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.79 xG and NAC Breda 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.891 / defence 0.977 | NAC Breda attack 0.931 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.740 / away 1.519. Data: 11 FC Volendam games / 45 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 47% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | NAC Breda 3.33. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | NAC Breda 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 47% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Volendam 1.79 / NAC Breda 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.891 / def 0.977 | NAC Breda attack 0.931 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.740 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.38
NAC Breda xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs NAC Breda kick off?
FC Volendam vs NAC Breda kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
FC Volendam 2 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is FC Volendam vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs NAC Breda part of?
FC Volendam vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 47% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Volendam and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and NAC Breda?
Record (2 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and NAC Breda in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Volendam's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
47%
2.12
23%
4.34
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.17
1.38
NAC Breda xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
5%
20.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.38 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 27W 8D 10L from 45 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 22L across 45 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over NAC Breda heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 16W 2D 4L from 22 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 2W 5D 15L across 22 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.07 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; NAC Breda in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 27W 8D 10L in their last 45 games (1.98 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 11W 12D 22L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or NAC Breda away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.27 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Volendam's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and NAC Breda?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, NAC Breda have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when NAC Breda 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and NAC Breda?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 64%, NAC Breda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for FC Volendam and 59% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; NAC Breda in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Volendam's games and 50% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of FC Volendam's matches and 59% of NAC Breda's.
Do FC Volendam and NAC Breda tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Volendam edge out NAC Breda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat NAC Breda 2-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.79 xG and NAC Breda 1.38 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.89 / defence 0.98 against NAC Breda attack 0.93 / defence 1.16, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 47% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 30%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 76%, NAC Breda 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
NAC Breda's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.