FC Volendam 3-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus Emmen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 4 March 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Emmen (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Emmen have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. FC Volendam's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Emmen's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC Volendam, 1 for Emmen and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Emmen — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 67% versus Emmen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 67% | Emmen 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.77 xG and Emmen 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.946 / defence 1.213 | Emmen attack 0.690 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.236. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 FC Volendam games / 23 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 53% | Draw 28% | Emmen 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Emmen 5.00. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 60% | Emmen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Emmen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 53% | Draw 28% | Emmen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Volendam 1.77 / Emmen 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.946 / def 1.213 | Emmen attack 0.690 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Emmen xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Emmen kick off?
FC Volendam vs Emmen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Emmen?
FC Volendam 3 - 1 Emmen.
Where is FC Volendam vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Emmen part of?
FC Volendam vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 53% chance of winning, Emmen a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Volendam and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Emmen?
Record (3 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 2 | Emmen 1W.
What form are FC Volendam and Emmen in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Emmen (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.95x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.69x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.61
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.81
1.03
Emmen xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
3%
29.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.03 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 26W 17D 18L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen's form line: 29W 14D 18L from 61 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.66 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.83 PPG from 30 outings (17W 4D 9L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 12W 6D 12L from 30 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.38 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Emmen in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Emmen in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 26W 17D 18L in their last 61 games (1.56 PPG), while Emmen have gone 29W 14D 18L in their last 61 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Emmen away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.83 PPG; Emmen away: 1.40 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Emmen in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 4-1 on 14 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Volendam
2
Draws
2
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Emmen?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 2, Emmen have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Emmen 1-2 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 73%, Emmen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for FC Volendam and 40% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of FC Volendam's games and 47% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of FC Volendam's matches and 40% of Emmen's.
Do FC Volendam and Emmen tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Emmen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Emmen 3-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.77 xG and Emmen 1.03 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Volendam beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.95 / defence 1.21 against Emmen attack 0.69 / defence 1.21, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 53% | Draw 28% | Emmen 20%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 67%, Emmen 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.56 PPG, Emmen 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Emmen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.