Excelsior 0-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 31 as Excelsior welcome Feyenoord to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Excelsior have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 10W 0D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Feyenoord are 2.20 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Excelsior, 1 for Feyenoord and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–5 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 53% versus Feyenoord 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 62% | Feyenoord 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.05 xG and Feyenoord 2.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.817 / defence 1.176 | Feyenoord attack 1.520 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.300. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.520 — the away xG of 2.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Excelsior games / 64 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 15% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 65%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 6.67 | Draw 4.76 | Feyenoord 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.05 / 2.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 40% | Feyenoord 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 15% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG Excelsior 1.05 / Feyenoord 2.32 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.817 / def 1.176 | Feyenoord attack 1.520 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
2.32
Feyenoord xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Feyenoord kick off?
Excelsior vs Feyenoord kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Excelsior 0 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is Excelsior vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Feyenoord part of?
Excelsior vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 15% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 65% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Excelsior and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Feyenoord?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 1W.
What form are Excelsior and Feyenoord in?
Excelsior (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Feyenoord (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 2.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 0-2 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
15%
6.86
21%
4.79
65%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.2%
Away win
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.38
2.32
Feyenoord xG
6.86
15%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
1.55
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
10%
10.20
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
1%
69.93
23%
4.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Excelsior and 2.32 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Excelsior come into this having played 64 games, going 24W 15D 25L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.25 PPG from 64 outings (44W 12D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Excelsior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Excelsior's home form reads 14W 8D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 2.22 points per game from 32 outings (22W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.33 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Current Season
Feyenoord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 24W 15D 25L in their last 64 games (1.36 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 44W 12D 8L in their last 64 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.56 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and Feyenoord runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Feyenoord have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Feyenoord won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Excelsior
0
Draws
6
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Feyenoord?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 0, Feyenoord have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Feyenoord 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 59%, Feyenoord 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Excelsior and 69% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Excelsior's games and 66% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Excelsior's matches and 69% of Feyenoord's.
Do Excelsior and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Excelsior 0-2 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.05 xG and Feyenoord 2.32 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Excelsior fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.82 / defence 1.18 against Feyenoord attack 1.52 / defence 0.81, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 15% | Draw 21% | Feyenoord 65%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 62%, Feyenoord 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Feyenoord's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.36. Form held, and they took the win. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.