Emmen 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Volendam make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Friday 14 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Emmen (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 7W 2D 1L at De Oude Meerdijk — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Oude Meerdijk. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
FC Volendam's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Emmen, 0.60 for FC Volendam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Emmen 1W, FC Volendam 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2022, ended 4–1 with Emmen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Emmen — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 43% versus FC Volendam 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 47% | FC Volendam 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.80 xG and FC Volendam 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.728 / defence 1.072 | FC Volendam attack 0.640 / defence 1.522. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.297. Emmen's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 1.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.522 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Emmen games / 9 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 59% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 18%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | FC Volendam 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Emmen 40% | FC Volendam 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 59% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Emmen 1.80 / FC Volendam 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.728 / def 1.072 | FC Volendam attack 0.640 / def 1.522 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Emmen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FC Volendam xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs FC Volendam kick off?
Emmen vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 October 2022 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Emmen 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Emmen vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs FC Volendam part of?
Emmen vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 59% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Emmen and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC Volendam?
Record (2 meetings): Emmen 1W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 0W.
What form are Emmen and FC Volendam in?
Emmen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.73x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (0.64x) against Emmen's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.36
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.69
0.89
FC Volendam xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
32.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Emmen and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Emmen and 0.89 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 27W 7D 13L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam's form line: 22W 14D 11L from 47 games, 1.70 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.87 PPG for Emmen against 1.70 for FC Volendam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Emmen have posted 2.17 PPG from 23 outings (16W 2D 5L).
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 8W 10D 5L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.94 scored and 1.70 conceded. FC Volendam's attacking output running into Emmen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 72%.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 27W 7D 13L in their last 47 games (1.87 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 22W 14D 11L in their last 47 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or FC Volendam away?
Emmen's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.17 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Emmen or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 4-1 on 14 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Emmen
2
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and FC Volendam?
From 6 meetings on record, Emmen have won 2, FC Volendam have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Emmen 1-2 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 39%, FC Volendam 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Emmen) and 52% (FC Volendam).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Emmen's recent matches and 65% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Emmen's recent games and 52% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen and FC Volendam finished level at 1-1 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.80 xG and FC Volendam 0.89 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.73 / defence 1.07 against FC Volendam attack 0.64 / defence 1.52, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 59% | Draw 23% | FC Volendam 18%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 47%, FC Volendam 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Volendam's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.87 PPG, FC Volendam 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.